Qantas Airways Limited
ASX-QAN
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2023-06-30 (A) | 2024-06-30 (A) | 2025-06-30 (A) | 2026-06-30 (E) | 2027-06-30 (E) | 2028-06-30 (E) | 2029-06-30 (E) | 2030-06-30 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 19,815 | 21,939 | 23,823 | 25,642 | 26,831.5 | 28,177.1 | 28,177.1 | 28,177.1 |
Revenue % Chg. | 117.6% | 10.7% | 8.6% | |||||
EBIT | 2,734 | 2,198 | 2,455 | 2,857.4 | 3,122.5 | 3,304.5 | 3,304.5 | 3,304.5 |
EBIT Margin | 13.8% | 10% | 10.3% | |||||
Tax Rate | 29.4% | 33.6% | 29% | |||||
NOPAT | 1,928.8 | 1,459.5 | 1,741.9 | 1,965 | 2,133.7 | 2,258.1 | 2,258.1 | 2,258.1 |
NOPAT Margin | 9.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
D&A | 1,677 | 1,773 | 2,012 | 2,235.8 | 2,502 | 2,759 | 2,759 | 2,759 |
D&A / Revenue | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | |||||
Capex | -2,594 | -2,761 | -3,918 | -4,211.8 | -5,134.5 | -5,048.3 | -5,048.3 | -5,048.3 |
Capex / Revenue | -13.1% | -12.6% | -16.4% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 1,478 | — | — | 637.5 | 667.1 | 700.6 | 700.6 | 700.6 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 7.5% | — | — | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 2,489.8 | 471.5 | -164.1 | 626.5 | 168.4 | 669.4 | 669.4 | 669.4 |
UFCF % Chg. | 15.6% | -81.1% | -134.8% | -481.9% | -73.1% | 297.6% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 586.5 | 147.5 | 549.2 | 514.1 | 481.3 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 586.5 | 734 | 1,283.2 | 1,797.3 | 2,278.5 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 7,956 |
| Market Cap | 14,464.2 |
| Total Capital | 22,420.2 |
| Debt Weighting | 35.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 64.5% |
| WACC | 6.8% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 20,212.2 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 13,603.1 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 2,278.5 |
| Net Debt | 5,743 |
| Equity Value | 10,138.6 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,482 |
| Implied Share Price | 6.8 |
| Current Share Price | 9.8 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -30.5% |