Ferrari N.V.
BIT-RACE
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 5,095.3 | 5,970.1 | 6,676.7 | 7,118 | 7,686.5 | 8,208.8 | 8,208.8 | 8,208.8 |
Revenue % Chg. | 19.3% | 17.2% | 11.8% | |||||
EBIT | 1,221.2 | 1,611.2 | 1,884 | 2,079.4 | 2,295.1 | 2,484.9 | 2,484.9 | 2,484.9 |
EBIT Margin | 24% | 27% | 28.2% | |||||
Tax Rate | 20.2% | 21.5% | 19.2% | |||||
NOPAT | 973.9 | 1,264.4 | 1,521.9 | 1,620.1 | 1,771.2 | 1,900.6 | 1,900.6 | 1,900.6 |
NOPAT Margin | 19.1% | 21.2% | 22.8% | 22.8% | 23% | 23.2% | 23.2% | 23.2% |
D&A | 288.5 | 319.6 | 336 | 663 | 714.8 | 762.4 | 762.4 | 762.4 |
D&A / Revenue | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5% | |||||
Capex | -347.7 | -381.8 | -482.3 | -928.2 | -942.5 | -974.4 | -974.4 | -974.4 |
Capex / Revenue | -6.8% | -6.4% | -7.2% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -146.2 | -358.3 | -382.6 | -346.4 | -374.1 | -399.5 | -399.5 | -399.5 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -2.9% | -6% | -5.7% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 768.5 | 844 | 993 | 1,008.4 | 1,169.4 | 1,289 | 1,289 | 1,289 |
UFCF % Chg. | 27.3% | 9.8% | 17.7% | 1.6% | 16% | 10.2% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 906.1 | 944.2 | 935.2 | 840.3 | 755 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 906.1 | 1,850.3 | 2,785.5 | 3,625.7 | 4,380.8 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 1.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 12% |
| Total Debt | 3,351.9 |
| Market Cap | 51,482 |
| Total Capital | 54,833.9 |
| Debt Weighting | 6.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 93.9% |
| WACC | 11.3% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 52,764.7 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 27,770.8 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 4,380.8 |
| Net Debt | 1,489.4 |
| Equity Value | 30,662.1 |
| Shares Outstanding | 177.3 |
| Implied Share Price | 172.9 |
| Current Share Price | 337.3 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -48.7% |