ASML Holding N.V.
ENXTAM-ASML
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 21,173.4 | 27,558.5 | 28,262.9 | 32,452.4 | 34,286.3 | 39,056.9 | 39,056.9 | 39,056.9 |
Revenue % Chg. | 13.8% | 30.2% | 2.6% | |||||
EBIT | 6,500.7 | 9,042.3 | 9,022.6 | 11,247 | 11,761.8 | 14,304.6 | 14,304.6 | 14,304.6 |
EBIT Margin | 30.7% | 32.8% | 31.9% | |||||
Tax Rate | 14.7% | 15.5% | 18.2% | |||||
NOPAT | 5,544.5 | 7,642.5 | 7,383.7 | 9,306.6 | 9,746.6 | 11,856.9 | 11,856.9 | 11,856.9 |
NOPAT Margin | 26.2% | 27.7% | 26.1% | 28.7% | 28.4% | 30.4% | 30.4% | 30.4% |
D&A | 580.3 | 656.4 | 838.8 | 1,033.2 | 1,070.9 | 1,169.6 | 1,169.6 | 1,169.6 |
D&A / Revenue | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3% | |||||
Capex | -1,281.8 | -2,155.6 | -2,067.2 | -1,748.1 | -1,960.1 | -2,091.4 | -2,091.4 | -2,091.4 |
Capex / Revenue | -6.1% | -7.8% | -7.3% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 2,441.2 | -3,663.6 | 2,053.3 | 595 | 628.7 | 716.1 | 716.1 | 716.1 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 11.5% | -13.3% | 7.3% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 7,284.2 | 2,479.7 | 8,208.6 | 9,186.7 | 9,486.1 | 11,651.3 | 11,651.3 | 11,651.3 |
UFCF % Chg. | -27.3% | -66% | 231% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 22.8% | 0% | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 8,456.4 | 8,037.8 | 9,087.6 | 8,365.2 | 7,700.1 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 8,456.4 | 16,494.1 | 25,581.7 | 33,946.9 | 41,647 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 2.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 5,064.5 |
| Market Cap | 358,343.5 |
| Total Capital | 363,408 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.6% |
| WACC | 8.6% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 355,920 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 216,522.4 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 41,647 |
| Net Debt | -2,423.5 |
| Equity Value | 260,592.9 |
| Shares Outstanding | 387.3 |
| Implied Share Price | 672.9 |
| Current Share Price | 925.3 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -27.3% |