Heineken N.V.
ENXTAM-HEIA
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 28,719 | 30,362 | 29,821 | 28,970.8 | 30,257.6 | 31,568.9 | 31,568.9 | 31,568.9 |
Revenue % Chg. | 30.9% | 5.7% | -1.8% | |||||
EBIT | 4,045 | 3,809 | 3,849 | 4,384.2 | 4,668.3 | 4,967.1 | 4,967.1 | 4,967.1 |
EBIT Margin | 14.1% | 12.5% | 12.9% | |||||
Tax Rate | 27.1% | 4.8% | 42.2% | |||||
NOPAT | 2,947.9 | 3,626.3 | 2,226.6 | 3,130.9 | 3,389.8 | 3,605.5 | 3,605.5 | 3,605.5 |
NOPAT Margin | 10.3% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% |
D&A | 1,900 | 1,989 | 2,165 | 2,285 | 2,349.5 | 2,490 | 2,490 | 2,490 |
D&A / Revenue | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | |||||
Capex | -1,791 | -2,434 | -2,184 | -2,397.7 | -2,484.7 | -2,572.2 | -2,572.2 | -2,572.2 |
Capex / Revenue | -6.2% | -8% | -7.3% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -687 | -178 | 845 | -14 | -14.6 | -15.2 | -15.2 | -15.2 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -2.4% | -0.6% | 2.8% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 2,369.9 | 3,003.3 | 3,052.6 | 3,004.3 | 3,240 | 3,508.1 | 3,508.1 | 3,508.1 |
UFCF % Chg. | -18.4% | 26.7% | 1.6% | -1.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 0% | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,810.4 | 2,835.4 | 2,871.9 | 2,686.6 | 2,513.2 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,810.4 | 5,645.8 | 8,517.6 | 11,204.2 | 13,717.4 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 2.9% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 17,049 |
| Market Cap | 38,654 |
| Total Capital | 55,703 |
| Debt Weighting | 30.6% |
| Equity Weighting | 69.4% |
| WACC | 6.9% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 56,697 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 37,996.8 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 13,717.4 |
| Net Debt | 15,520 |
| Equity Value | 36,194.2 |
| Shares Outstanding | 554.1 |
| Implied Share Price | 65.3 |
| Current Share Price | 69.8 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -6.4% |