Danone S.A.
ENXTPA-BN
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 27,661 | 27,619 | 27,376 | 27,417.9 | 28,243 | 29,349.8 | 29,349.8 | 29,349.8 |
Revenue % Chg. | 13.9% | -0.2% | -0.9% | |||||
EBIT | 3,383 | 3,491 | 3,510 | 3,703.2 | 3,916.6 | 4,162.9 | 4,162.9 | 4,162.9 |
EBIT Margin | 12.2% | 12.6% | 12.8% | |||||
Tax Rate | 43.2% | 44.6% | 30.7% | |||||
NOPAT | 1,921.6 | 1,933.1 | 2,433.5 | 2,695.1 | 2,851.3 | 3,030.6 | 3,030.6 | 3,030.6 |
NOPAT Margin | 6.9% | 7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.3% |
D&A | 1,087 | 1,453 | 1,046 | 1,127.6 | 1,155.4 | 1,188 | 1,188 | 1,188 |
D&A / Revenue | 3.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | |||||
Capex | -873 | -847 | -923 | -1,009.2 | -1,065.9 | -1,120.3 | -1,120.3 | -1,120.3 |
Capex / Revenue | -3.2% | -3.1% | -3.4% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 77 | 277 | 533 | 295 | 303.9 | 315.8 | 315.8 | 315.8 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 0.3% | 1% | 1.9% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 2,212.6 | 2,816.1 | 3,089.5 | 3,108.6 | 3,244.7 | 3,414.2 | 3,414.2 | 3,414.2 |
UFCF % Chg. | -24.3% | 27.3% | 9.7% | 0.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,883.9 | 2,792.7 | 2,726.3 | 2,529.3 | 2,346.5 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,883.9 | 5,676.7 | 8,403 | 10,932.2 | 13,278.8 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 2.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.4% |
| Total Debt | 14,802 |
| Market Cap | 49,496.4 |
| Total Capital | 64,298.4 |
| Debt Weighting | 23% |
| Equity Weighting | 77% |
| WACC | 7.8% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 58,743.4 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 37,456.3 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 13,278.8 |
| Net Debt | 9,189 |
| Equity Value | 41,546 |
| Shares Outstanding | 646 |
| Implied Share Price | 64.3 |
| Current Share Price | 76.6 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -16.1% |