Gaz de France SA
ENXTPA-GAZ
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2005-12-31 (A) | 2006-12-31 (A) | 2007-12-31 (A) | 2013-12-31 (E) | 2014-12-31 (E) | 2015-12-31 (E) | 2016-12-31 (E) | 2017-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 22,785 | 27,520 | 27,325 | 27,325 | 27,325 | 27,325 | 27,325 | 27,325 |
Revenue % Chg. | 25.4% | 20.8% | -0.7% | |||||
EBIT | 2,662 | 3,316 | 3,719 | 3,719 | 3,719 | 3,719 | 3,719 | 3,719 |
EBIT Margin | 11.7% | 12% | 13.6% | |||||
Tax Rate | 30.9% | 32.2% | 31.5% | |||||
NOPAT | 1,840.2 | 2,247.8 | 2,548.4 | 2,548.4 | 2,548.4 | 2,548.4 | 2,548.4 | 2,548.4 |
NOPAT Margin | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% |
D&A | 1,342 | 1,431 | 1,515 | 1,515 | 1,515 | 1,515 | 1,515 | 1,515 |
D&A / Revenue | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | |||||
Capex | -1,783 | -2,210 | -2,611 | -2,611 | -2,611 | -2,611 | -2,611 | -2,611 |
Capex / Revenue | -7.8% | -8% | -9.6% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -649 | -410 | 232 | -317.8 | -317.8 | -317.8 | -317.8 | -317.8 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -2.8% | -1.5% | 0.8% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 750.2 | 1,058.8 | 1,684.4 | 1,134.6 | 1,134.6 | 1,134.6 | 1,134.6 | 1,134.6 |
UFCF % Chg. | -43.5% | 41.1% | 59.1% | -32.6% | — | — | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 1,044 | 960.7 | 884 | 813.5 | 748.6 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 1,044 | 2,004.7 | 2,888.8 | 3,702.3 | 4,450.9 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.5% |
| Total Debt | 5,969 |
| Market Cap | 38,311.5 |
| Total Capital | 44,280.5 |
| Debt Weighting | 13.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 86.5% |
| WACC | 8.7% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 41,598.5 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 25,256 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 4,450.9 |
| Net Debt | 2,864 |
| Equity Value | 26,842.9 |
| Shares Outstanding | 961.4 |
| Implied Share Price | 27.9 |
| Current Share Price | 39.9 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -29.9% |