Türk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi
IBSE-THYAO
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 18,426 | 20,942 | 22,669 | 993,587.8 | 1,142,426.4 | 1,170,703.7 | 1,170,703.7 | 1,170,703.7 |
Revenue % Chg. | 72.4% | 13.7% | 8.2% | |||||
EBIT | 2,794 | 2,560 | 2,171 | 107,194.3 | 105,863.9 | 115,150.3 | 115,150.3 | 115,150.3 |
EBIT Margin | 15.2% | 12.2% | 9.6% | |||||
Tax Rate | 7.3% | -65.4% | 6.1% | |||||
NOPAT | 2,590.6 | 4,233.4 | 2,038.8 | 97,153.7 | 96,653.8 | 105,132.2 | 105,132.2 | 105,132.2 |
NOPAT Margin | 14.1% | 20.2% | 9% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
D&A | 1,864 | 2,035 | 2,203 | 96,865.9 | 107,691.7 | 114,378.3 | 114,378.3 | 114,378.3 |
D&A / Revenue | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.7% | |||||
Capex | -1,056 | -1,242 | -1,282 | -118,629.2 | -113,397 | -117,651.4 | -117,651.4 | -117,651.4 |
Capex / Revenue | -5.7% | -5.9% | -5.7% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 1,063 | 109 | 49 | 21,546.5 | 24,774.1 | 25,387.3 | 25,387.3 | 25,387.3 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 5.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 4,461.6 | 5,135.4 | 3,008.8 | 96,936.9 | 115,722.6 | 127,246.5 | 127,246.5 | 127,246.5 |
UFCF % Chg. | 48.5% | 15.1% | -41.4% | 3,121.7% | 19.4% | 10% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 87,891.1 | 95,132.8 | 94,844.9 | 85,994.4 | 77,969.7 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 87,891.1 | 183,023.9 | 277,868.8 | 363,863.1 | 441,832.9 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.9% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 18.5% |
| Total Debt | 13,861 |
| Market Cap | 9,070.1 |
| Total Capital | 22,931.1 |
| Debt Weighting | 60.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 39.6% |
| WACC | 10.3% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 18,134.7 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 10,075 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 441,832.9 |
| Net Debt | 9,252 |
| Equity Value | 442,655.9 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,379.9 |
| Implied Share Price | 320.8 |
| Current Share Price | 6.6 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | 4,780.4% |