Compass Group PLC
LSE-CPG
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2023-09-30 (A) | 2024-09-30 (A) | 2025-09-30 (A) | 2026-09-30 (E) | 2027-09-30 (E) | 2028-09-30 (E) | 2029-09-30 (E) | 2030-09-30 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 37,907 | 42,002 | 46,070 | 50,274.6 | 53,774.9 | 57,349.2 | 57,349.2 | 57,349.2 |
Revenue % Chg. | 33.1% | 10.8% | 9.7% | |||||
EBIT | 2,515 | 2,919 | 3,080 | 3,695.2 | 4,019.4 | 4,350.7 | 4,350.7 | 4,350.7 |
EBIT Margin | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | |||||
Tax Rate | 24.6% | 31.2% | 27.2% | |||||
NOPAT | 1,897.1 | 2,007.5 | 2,240.9 | 2,747.7 | 2,988.7 | 3,237.7 | 3,237.7 | 3,237.7 |
NOPAT Margin | 5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% |
D&A | 611 | 675 | 852 | 1,392 | 1,492.1 | 1,582.8 | 1,582.8 | 1,582.8 |
D&A / Revenue | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | |||||
Capex | -445 | -572 | -545 | -1,737.3 | -1,845.6 | -2,018.8 | -2,018.8 | -2,018.8 |
Capex / Revenue | -1.2% | -1.4% | -1.2% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -120 | 186 | -40 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -0.3% | 0.4% | -0.1% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 1,943.1 | 2,296.5 | 2,507.9 | 2,409 | 2,642.3 | 2,809.2 | 2,809.2 | 2,809.2 |
UFCF % Chg. | 53% | 18.2% | 9.2% | -3.9% | 9.7% | 6.3% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,207.8 | 2,219.2 | 2,162.3 | 1,981.7 | 1,816.1 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,207.8 | 4,427 | 6,589.3 | 8,571 | 10,387.2 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
| Total Debt | 6,992 |
| Market Cap | 52,901 |
| Total Capital | 59,893 |
| Debt Weighting | 11.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 88.3% |
| WACC | 9.1% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 59,374.5 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 35,179.1 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 10,387.2 |
| Net Debt | 6,417 |
| Equity Value | 39,149.3 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,697.1 |
| Implied Share Price | 23.1 |
| Current Share Price | 31.2 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -26% |