ABI SAB Group Holding Limited
LSE-SAB
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2014-03-31 (A) | 2015-03-31 (A) | 2016-03-31 (A) | 2017-03-31 (E) | 2018-03-31 (E) | 2019-03-31 (E) | 2020-03-31 (E) | 2021-03-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 16,704 | 16,534 | 14,895 | 16,132.5 | 17,418 | 18,261 | 18,261 | 18,261 |
Revenue % Chg. | -3.9% | -1% | -9.9% | |||||
EBIT | 4,230 | 4,279 | 3,895 | 4,710.4 | 4,876.9 | 5,346 | 5,346 | 5,346 |
EBIT Margin | 25.3% | 25.9% | 26.1% | |||||
Tax Rate | 24.3% | 26.4% | 28.3% | |||||
NOPAT | 3,201.2 | 3,151.2 | 2,793.6 | 3,459.8 | 3,584.5 | 3,929.3 | 3,929.3 | 3,929.3 |
NOPAT Margin | 19.2% | 19.1% | 18.8% | 21.4% | 20.6% | 21.5% | 21.5% | 21.5% |
D&A | 1,215 | 1,156 | 1,022 | 1,254.3 | 1,327 | 1,394.7 | 1,394.7 | 1,394.7 |
D&A / Revenue | 7.3% | 7% | 6.9% | |||||
Capex | -1,401 | -1,394 | -1,210 | -1,175.7 | -1,228.6 | -1,307.8 | -1,307.8 | -1,307.8 |
Capex / Revenue | -8.4% | -8.4% | -8.1% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 93 | 132 | 61 | 94.9 | 102.5 | 107.4 | 107.4 | 107.4 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 3,108.2 | 3,045.2 | 2,666.6 | 3,633.2 | 3,785.4 | 4,123.6 | 4,123.6 | 4,123.6 |
UFCF % Chg. | 9.8% | -2% | -12.4% | 36.2% | 4.2% | 8.9% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 3,331.6 | 3,183 | 3,179.5 | 2,915.6 | 2,673.6 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 3,331.6 | 6,514.7 | 9,694.2 | 12,609.8 | 15,283.4 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
| Total Debt | 11,763 |
| Market Cap | 100,864.2 |
| Total Capital | 112,627.2 |
| Debt Weighting | 10.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 89.6% |
| WACC | 9.1% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 111,564.6 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 66,329.8 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 15,283.4 |
| Net Debt | 10,471 |
| Equity Value | 71,142.2 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,670 |
| Implied Share Price | 42.6 |
| Current Share Price | 60.4 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -29.5% |