Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
NYSE-AJG
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 8,270.1 | 9,559.2 | 10,927.4 | 13,865.5 | 16,833.2 | 18,446.5 | 18,446.5 | 18,446.5 |
Revenue % Chg. | 3.7% | 15.6% | 14.3% | |||||
EBIT | 1,518.9 | 1,910.4 | 2,333.5 | 3,645.8 | 4,861.4 | 5,589.2 | 5,589.2 | 5,589.2 |
EBIT Margin | 18.4% | 20% | 21.4% | |||||
Tax Rate | 15.9% | 18.5% | 21.6% | |||||
NOPAT | 1,277.4 | 1,557.2 | 1,830.2 | 2,829.1 | 3,703.4 | 4,248.9 | 4,248.9 | 4,248.9 |
NOPAT Margin | 15.4% | 16.3% | 16.7% | 20.4% | 22% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
D&A | 597.6 | 693 | 822.9 | 202.7 | 237.6 | 242.5 | 242.5 | 242.5 |
D&A / Revenue | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | |||||
Capex | -182.7 | -193.6 | -141.9 | -215.7 | -287 | -350.3 | -350.3 | -350.3 |
Capex / Revenue | -2.2% | -2% | -1.3% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -182.7 | -121.2 | 40.9 | -143.4 | -174.1 | -190.8 | -190.8 | -190.8 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -2.2% | -1.3% | 0.4% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 1,509.6 | 1,935.4 | 2,552.1 | 2,672.8 | 3,479.9 | 3,950.3 | 3,950.3 | 3,950.3 |
UFCF % Chg. | -7.6% | 28.2% | 31.9% | 4.7% | 30.2% | 13.5% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,483.4 | 3,004.2 | 3,168.6 | 2,944.1 | 2,735.4 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,483.4 | 5,487.6 | 8,656.2 | 11,600.3 | 14,335.7 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 2.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 13,577 |
| Market Cap | 63,009.7 |
| Total Capital | 76,586.7 |
| Debt Weighting | 17.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 82.3% |
| WACC | 7.6% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 75,344.8 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 48,476 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 14,335.7 |
| Net Debt | 12,304 |
| Equity Value | 50,507.7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 256.8 |
| Implied Share Price | 196.7 |
| Current Share Price | 245.4 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -19.8% |