AutoZone, Inc.
NYSE-AZO
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2023-08-26 (A) | 2024-08-31 (A) | 2025-08-30 (A) | 2026-08-31 (E) | 2027-08-31 (E) | 2028-08-31 (E) | 2029-08-31 (E) | 2030-08-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 17,457.2 | 18,490.3 | 18,938.7 | 20,556.5 | 22,082.6 | 23,828.8 | 23,828.8 | 23,828.8 |
Revenue % Chg. | 7.4% | 5.9% | 2.4% | |||||
EBIT | 3,474 | 3,788.7 | 3,610.2 | 3,627.2 | 4,140.7 | 4,492.3 | 4,492.3 | 4,492.3 |
EBIT Margin | 19.9% | 20.5% | 19.1% | |||||
Tax Rate | 20.2% | 20.2% | 20.3% | |||||
NOPAT | 2,773 | 3,022.7 | 2,877.5 | 2,865.6 | 3,274.5 | 3,527.9 | 3,527.9 | 3,527.9 |
NOPAT Margin | 15.9% | 16.3% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% |
D&A | 497.6 | 549.8 | 613.2 | 669.2 | 723.3 | 788.9 | 788.9 | 788.9 |
D&A / Revenue | 2.9% | 3% | 3.2% | |||||
Capex | -796.7 | -1,072.7 | -1,327.3 | -1,578.9 | -1,588.6 | -1,618.1 | -1,618.1 | -1,618.1 |
Capex / Revenue | -4.6% | -5.8% | -7% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -205.9 | -31.9 | -311.1 | -205.2 | -220.4 | -237.8 | -237.8 | -237.8 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -1.2% | -0.2% | -1.6% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 2,268 | 2,467.9 | 1,852.4 | 1,750.7 | 2,188.8 | 2,460.9 | 2,460.9 | 2,460.9 |
UFCF % Chg. | -5.8% | 8.8% | -24.9% | -5.5% | 25% | 12.4% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 1,625.5 | 1,886.7 | 1,969.5 | 1,828.5 | 1,697.7 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 1,625.5 | 3,512.2 | 5,481.6 | 7,310.1 | 9,007.8 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 12,577.2 |
| Market Cap | 57,535 |
| Total Capital | 70,112.2 |
| Debt Weighting | 17.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 82.1% |
| WACC | 7.7% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 69,383.3 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 44,439.3 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 9,007.8 |
| Net Debt | 11,848.2 |
| Equity Value | 41,598.9 |
| Shares Outstanding | 16.6 |
| Implied Share Price | 2,508.2 |
| Current Share Price | 3,469.1 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -27.7% |