Cencora, Inc.
NYSE-COR
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2023-09-30 (A) | 2024-09-30 (A) | 2025-09-30 (A) | 2026-09-30 (E) | 2027-09-30 (E) | 2028-09-30 (E) | 2029-09-30 (E) | 2030-09-30 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 262,173.4 | 293,958.6 | 321,332.8 | 340,562.5 | 362,629.8 | 386,808.5 | 386,808.5 | 386,808.5 |
Revenue % Chg. | 9.9% | 12.1% | 9.3% | |||||
EBIT | 2,533.5 | 3,040.1 | 3,746.8 | 4,606 | 4,951.2 | 5,316.1 | 5,316.1 | 5,316.1 |
EBIT Margin | 1% | 1% | 1.2% | |||||
Tax Rate | 19.8% | 24.2% | 30.6% | |||||
NOPAT | 2,031.4 | 2,304.8 | 2,601.2 | 3,661.7 | 3,936.2 | 4,226.3 | 4,226.3 | 4,226.3 |
NOPAT Margin | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
D&A | 972.4 | 1,111.7 | 1,058.2 | 1,098.8 | 1,117.7 | 1,104.9 | 1,104.9 | 1,104.9 |
D&A / Revenue | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | |||||
Capex | -458.4 | -487.2 | -668 | -898.3 | -956.2 | -809.4 | -809.4 | -809.4 |
Capex / Revenue | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 874.5 | 298.7 | 35.4 | 506.5 | 539.4 | 575.3 | 575.3 | 575.3 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 3,419.9 | 3,228 | 3,026.9 | 4,368.8 | 4,637 | 5,097.1 | 5,097.1 | 5,097.1 |
UFCF % Chg. | 55.9% | -5.6% | -6.2% | 44.3% | 6.1% | 9.9% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 4,042.6 | 3,970.3 | 4,038.3 | 3,736.7 | 3,457.6 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 4,042.6 | 8,012.8 | 12,051.1 | 15,787.8 | 19,245.4 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.6% |
| Total Debt | 9,331.2 |
| Market Cap | 65,498 |
| Total Capital | 74,829.2 |
| Debt Weighting | 12.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 87.5% |
| WACC | 8.1% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 70,712.1 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 44,385 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 19,245.4 |
| Net Debt | 4,975 |
| Equity Value | 58,655.4 |
| Shares Outstanding | 194 |
| Implied Share Price | 302.4 |
| Current Share Price | 339.7 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -11% |