Ecolab Inc.
NYSE-ECL
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 14,187.8 | 15,320.2 | 15,741.4 | 16,054.7 | 16,894.8 | 17,773.9 | 17,773.9 | 17,773.9 |
Revenue % Chg. | 11.4% | 8% | 2.7% | |||||
EBIT | 1,848 | 2,186.1 | 2,670.1 | 2,875.7 | 3,216.3 | 3,607.2 | 3,607.2 | 3,607.2 |
EBIT Margin | 13% | 14.3% | 17% | |||||
Tax Rate | 17.5% | 20.6% | 17.1% | |||||
NOPAT | 1,525.4 | 1,734.7 | 2,213.9 | 2,296.3 | 2,571.1 | 2,882.9 | 2,882.9 | 2,882.9 |
NOPAT Margin | 10.8% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 15.2% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 16.2% |
D&A | 938.7 | 923.6 | 935.4 | 970.8 | 988.5 | 933.9 | 933.9 | 933.9 |
D&A / Revenue | 6.6% | 6% | 5.9% | |||||
Capex | -712.8 | -774.8 | -994.5 | -1,027.7 | -1,075 | -1,048.6 | -1,048.6 | -1,048.6 |
Capex / Revenue | -5% | -5.1% | -6.3% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -276.7 | 162.7 | 176.1 | 12.3 | 13 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 13.7 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 1,474.6 | 2,046.2 | 2,330.9 | 2,251.8 | 2,497.6 | 2,781.9 | 2,781.9 | 2,781.9 |
UFCF % Chg. | -13.8% | 38.8% | 13.9% | -3.4% | 10.9% | 11.4% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,081.7 | 2,134.5 | 2,197.9 | 2,031.9 | 1,878.4 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,081.7 | 4,216.2 | 6,414.1 | 8,445.9 | 10,324.3 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 8,282.7 |
| Market Cap | 74,018 |
| Total Capital | 82,300.7 |
| Debt Weighting | 10.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 89.9% |
| WACC | 8.2% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 80,927.1 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 50,516.3 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 10,324.3 |
| Net Debt | 6,874.2 |
| Equity Value | 53,966.4 |
| Shares Outstanding | 283.2 |
| Implied Share Price | 190.5 |
| Current Share Price | 261.3 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -27.1% |