FedEx Corporation
NYSE-FDX
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2023-05-31 (A) | 2024-05-31 (A) | 2025-05-31 (A) | 2026-05-31 (E) | 2027-05-31 (E) | 2028-05-31 (E) | 2029-05-31 (E) | 2030-05-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 90,155 | 87,693 | 87,926 | 91,421.8 | 95,122.5 | 98,522.2 | 98,522.2 | 98,522.2 |
Revenue % Chg. | -3.6% | -2.7% | 0.3% | |||||
EBIT | 6,392 | 6,963 | 6,745 | 5,973.1 | 6,636.3 | 7,134.5 | 7,134.5 | 7,134.5 |
EBIT Margin | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | |||||
Tax Rate | 25.9% | 25.8% | 24.8% | |||||
NOPAT | 4,734.1 | 5,167.4 | 5,072.7 | 4,465.1 | 4,979.1 | 5,358 | 5,358 | 5,358 |
NOPAT Margin | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
D&A | 4,176 | 4,287 | 4,264 | 4,433.3 | 4,584.6 | 4,743.2 | 4,743.2 | 4,743.2 |
D&A / Revenue | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | |||||
Capex | -6,174 | -5,176 | -4,055 | -4,452.4 | -4,959.2 | -5,154.8 | -5,154.8 | -5,154.8 |
Capex / Revenue | -6.8% | -5.9% | -4.6% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -3,140 | -3,431 | -4,700 | -3,882.6 | -4,039.8 | -4,184.2 | -4,184.2 | -4,184.2 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -3.5% | -3.9% | -5.3% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | -403.9 | 847.4 | 581.7 | 563.4 | 564.7 | 762.3 | 762.3 | 762.3 |
UFCF % Chg. | -70.8% | -309.8% | -31.4% | -3.1% | 0.2% | 35% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 531.3 | 502.3 | 639.4 | 603 | 568.7 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 531.3 | 1,033.6 | 1,673 | 2,276.1 | 2,844.8 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 1.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.6% |
| Total Debt | 37,416 |
| Market Cap | 64,663.6 |
| Total Capital | 102,079.6 |
| Debt Weighting | 36.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 63.3% |
| WACC | 6% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 96,332.6 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 67,780.5 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 2,844.8 |
| Net Debt | 31,669 |
| Equity Value | 38,956.3 |
| Shares Outstanding | 236 |
| Implied Share Price | 165.1 |
| Current Share Price | 274.1 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -39.8% |