W.W. Grainger, Inc.
NYSE-GWW
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 15,228 | 16,478 | 17,168 | 17,918.7 | 18,849.2 | 20,143.9 | 20,143.9 | 20,143.9 |
Revenue % Chg. | 16.9% | 8.2% | 4.2% | |||||
EBIT | 2,238 | 2,609 | 2,672 | 2,687.5 | 2,927.6 | 3,187.1 | 3,187.1 | 3,187.1 |
EBIT Margin | 14.7% | 15.8% | 15.6% | |||||
Tax Rate | 24.8% | 23.9% | 23% | |||||
NOPAT | 1,682.2 | 1,986 | 2,056.7 | 2,032.9 | 2,231.5 | 2,426.5 | 2,426.5 | 2,426.5 |
NOPAT Margin | 11% | 12.1% | 12% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
D&A | 205 | 214 | 237 | 259.3 | 254.2 | 262.3 | 262.3 | 262.3 |
D&A / Revenue | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | |||||
Capex | -256 | -445 | -541 | -655.1 | -559.6 | -559.1 | -559.1 | -559.1 |
Capex / Revenue | -1.7% | -2.7% | -3.2% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -616 | -255 | -276 | -430.1 | -452.4 | -483.5 | -483.5 | -483.5 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -4% | -1.5% | -1.6% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 1,015.2 | 1,500 | 1,476.7 | 1,207 | 1,473.7 | 1,646.2 | 1,646.2 | 1,646.2 |
UFCF % Chg. | 65.3% | 47.8% | -1.5% | -18.3% | 22.1% | 11.7% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 1,114.4 | 1,256.2 | 1,295.7 | 1,196.3 | 1,104.5 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 1,114.4 | 2,370.6 | 3,666.3 | 4,862.6 | 5,967.1 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 2% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 3,183 |
| Market Cap | 49,089.5 |
| Total Capital | 52,272.5 |
| Debt Weighting | 6.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 93.9% |
| WACC | 8.3% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 51,674.5 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 32,009.8 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 5,967.1 |
| Net Debt | 2,185 |
| Equity Value | 35,791.9 |
| Shares Outstanding | 47.5 |
| Implied Share Price | 752.7 |
| Current Share Price | 1,032.4 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -27.1% |