The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.
NYSE-HIG
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 22,356 | 24,553 | 26,560 | 28,287.9 | 29,991.6 | 31,260 | 31,260 | 31,260 |
Revenue % Chg. | 0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | |||||
EBIT | 2,482 | 3,319 | 4,075 | 4,799.9 | 4,891.4 | 5,034.1 | 5,034.1 | 5,034.1 |
EBIT Margin | 11.1% | 13.5% | 15.3% | |||||
Tax Rate | 19.6% | 18.9% | 19.2% | |||||
NOPAT | 1,995.9 | 2,691.3 | 3,293.7 | 3,854.3 | 3,918.8 | 4,034 | 4,034 | 4,034 |
NOPAT Margin | 8.9% | 11% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 12.9% |
D&A | 547 | 425 | 248 | 675.7 | 716.4 | 746.7 | 746.7 | 746.7 |
D&A / Revenue | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | |||||
Capex | -175 | -215 | -145 | -215.9 | -228.9 | -238.6 | -238.6 | -238.6 |
Capex / Revenue | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.5% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 934 | 920 | 2,178 | 1,520.5 | 1,612.1 | 1,680.2 | 1,680.2 | 1,680.2 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 4.2% | 3.7% | 8.2% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 3,301.9 | 3,821.3 | 5,574.7 | 5,834.6 | 6,018.3 | 6,222.3 | 6,222.3 | 6,222.3 |
UFCF % Chg. | -30.7% | 15.7% | 45.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 5,393.8 | 5,143.4 | 4,916 | 4,544.6 | 4,201.2 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 5,393.8 | 10,537.2 | 15,453.2 | 19,997.7 | 24,199 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 4,511 |
| Market Cap | 37,645.7 |
| Total Capital | 42,156.7 |
| Debt Weighting | 10.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 89.3% |
| WACC | 8.2% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 42,197.7 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 26,339 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 24,199 |
| Net Debt | 4,218 |
| Equity Value | 46,320 |
| Shares Outstanding | 278.7 |
| Implied Share Price | 166.2 |
| Current Share Price | 133 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | 24.9% |