Eli Lilly and Company
NYSE-LLY
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 28,541.4 | 34,124.1 | 45,042.7 | 63,578.3 | 76,423.7 | 89,121 | 89,121 | 89,121 |
Revenue % Chg. | 0.8% | 19.6% | 32% | |||||
EBIT | 8,653.3 | 10,787.3 | 17,501.7 | 26,668.8 | 34,891.3 | 41,955.8 | 41,955.8 | 41,955.8 |
EBIT Margin | 30.3% | 31.6% | 38.9% | |||||
Tax Rate | 8.3% | 20.1% | 16.5% | |||||
NOPAT | 7,939.3 | 8,624.4 | 14,616.5 | 21,979.2 | 29,137.4 | 35,044.5 | 35,044.5 | 35,044.5 |
NOPAT Margin | 27.8% | 25.3% | 32.5% | 34.6% | 38.1% | 39.3% | 39.3% | 39.3% |
D&A | 1,522.5 | 1,527.3 | 1,766.6 | 1,801.4 | 1,939.6 | 2,162.5 | 2,162.5 | 2,162.5 |
D&A / Revenue | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | |||||
Capex | -1,854.3 | -3,447.6 | -5,057.8 | -5,732.8 | -6,230.9 | -6,076.7 | -6,076.7 | -6,076.7 |
Capex / Revenue | -6.5% | -10.1% | -11.2% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -0.8 | -3,055 | -5,385 | -4,431.6 | -5,326.9 | -6,212 | -6,212 | -6,212 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -0% | -9% | -12% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 7,606.7 | 3,649.1 | 5,940.3 | 13,616.2 | 19,519.3 | 24,918.3 | 24,918.3 | 24,918.3 |
UFCF % Chg. | 13.1% | -52% | 62.8% | 129.2% | 43.4% | 27.7% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 12,551.8 | 16,586.8 | 19,519.4 | 17,993.5 | 16,586.8 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 12,551.8 | 29,138.5 | 48,657.9 | 66,651.4 | 83,238.2 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 2.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 34,910.6 |
| Market Cap | 920,015.8 |
| Total Capital | 954,926.4 |
| Debt Weighting | 3.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 96.3% |
| WACC | 8.5% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 952,417.7 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 584,415.4 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 83,238.2 |
| Net Debt | 32,344.4 |
| Equity Value | 635,309.2 |
| Shares Outstanding | 895.4 |
| Implied Share Price | 709.5 |
| Current Share Price | 1,027.5 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -30.9% |