Nielsen Holdings Limited
NYSE-NLSN
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2019-12-31 (A) | 2020-12-31 (A) | 2021-12-31 (A) | 2022-12-31 (E) | 2023-12-31 (E) | 2024-12-31 (E) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 3,441 | 3,361 | 3,500 | 3,584 | 3,750.5 | 3,932 | 3,932 | 3,932 |
Revenue % Chg. | -47.2% | -2.3% | 4.1% | |||||
EBIT | 891 | 856 | 880 | 874 | 984.5 | 1,104 | 1,104 | 1,104 |
EBIT Margin | 25.9% | 25.5% | 25.1% | |||||
Tax Rate | -32.2% | 41.5% | -0.4% | |||||
NOPAT | 1,177.8 | 500.8 | 883.2 | 662.5 | 723.6 | 800.4 | 800.4 | 800.4 |
NOPAT Margin | 34.2% | 14.9% | 25.2% | 18.5% | 19.3% | 20.4% | 20.4% | 20.4% |
D&A | 266 | 258 | 243 | 514.5 | 524 | 533 | 533 | 533 |
D&A / Revenue | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | |||||
Capex | -116 | -86 | -81 | -349 | -343 | -341 | -341 | -341 |
Capex / Revenue | -3.4% | -2.6% | -2.3% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -525 | -63 | -324 | -315.3 | -329.9 | -345.9 | -345.9 | -345.9 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -15.3% | -1.9% | -9.3% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 802.8 | 609.8 | 721.2 | 512.7 | 574.7 | 646.5 | 646.5 | 646.5 |
UFCF % Chg. | -37.2% | -24% | 18.3% | -28.9% | 12.1% | 12.5% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 476.1 | 495.5 | 517.6 | 480.7 | 446.3 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 476.1 | 971.6 | 1,489.3 | 1,969.9 | 2,416.3 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
| Total Debt | 5,828 |
| Market Cap | 10,069.6 |
| Total Capital | 15,897.6 |
| Debt Weighting | 36.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 63.3% |
| WACC | 7.7% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 15,365.6 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 9,849.6 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 2,416.3 |
| Net Debt | 4,958 |
| Equity Value | 7,307.9 |
| Shares Outstanding | 359.9 |
| Implied Share Price | 20.3 |
| Current Share Price | 28 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -27.4% |