Pinnacle West Capital Corporation
NYSE-PNW
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 4,324.4 | 4,696 | 5,124.9 | 5,311.3 | 5,513 | 5,886.4 | 5,886.4 | 5,886.4 |
Revenue % Chg. | 13.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | |||||
EBIT | 830.4 | 865.3 | 1,060.9 | 1,061.9 | 1,108.1 | 1,333.2 | 1,333.2 | 1,333.2 |
EBIT Margin | 19.2% | 18.4% | 20.7% | |||||
Tax Rate | 13% | 12.9% | 15% | |||||
NOPAT | 722.5 | 753.6 | 901.7 | 913.7 | 968.5 | 1,149.9 | 1,149.9 | 1,149.9 |
NOPAT Margin | 16.7% | 16% | 17.6% | 17.2% | 17.6% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.5% |
D&A | 817.8 | 854.1 | 956.2 | 935.6 | 1,005.2 | 1,078.1 | 1,078.1 | 1,078.1 |
D&A / Revenue | 18.9% | 18.2% | 18.7% | |||||
Capex | -1,735.5 | -1,889.9 | -2,297.5 | -2,400 | -2,600 | -2,672.5 | -2,672.5 | -2,672.5 |
Capex / Revenue | -40.1% | -40.2% | -44.8% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -13.6 | -172.4 | -80.7 | -98.4 | -102.2 | -109.1 | -109.1 | -109.1 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -0.3% | -3.7% | -1.6% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | -208.8 | -454.6 | -520.3 | -649.1 | -728.4 | -553.6 | -553.6 | -553.6 |
UFCF % Chg. | -42.8% | 117.7% | 14.5% | 24.7% | 12.2% | -24% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | -612.5 | -648.7 | -465.3 | -439.1 | -414.4 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | -612.5 | -1,261.3 | -1,726.5 | -2,165.6 | -2,580 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.6% |
| Total Debt | 11,048.3 |
| Market Cap | 10,597.4 |
| Total Capital | 21,645.7 |
| Debt Weighting | 51% |
| Equity Weighting | 49% |
| WACC | 6% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 24,856.2 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 17,559 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | -2,580 |
| Net Debt | 14,215.7 |
| Equity Value | 763.3 |
| Shares Outstanding | 119.7 |
| Implied Share Price | 6.4 |
| Current Share Price | 88.5 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -92.8% |