Simon Property Group, Inc.
NYSE-SPG
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 5,291.4 | 5,658.8 | 5,963.8 | 5,678.6 | 5,916.9 | 6,147.9 | 6,147.9 | 6,147.9 |
Revenue % Chg. | 3.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | |||||
EBIT | 2,583.6 | 2,807 | 3,092.8 | 3,047.7 | 3,327.6 | 3,439.4 | 3,439.4 | 3,439.4 |
EBIT Margin | 48.8% | 49.6% | 51.9% | |||||
Tax Rate | 3.3% | 3% | 0.8% | |||||
NOPAT | 2,498.5 | 2,721.9 | 3,066.7 | 3,008.1 | 3,254.3 | 3,367.2 | 3,367.2 | 3,367.2 |
NOPAT Margin | 47.2% | 48.1% | 51.4% | 53% | 55% | 54.8% | 54.8% | 54.8% |
D&A | 1,252.5 | 1,299.5 | 1,330.7 | 1,351.7 | 1,377.5 | 1,393.7 | 1,393.7 | 1,393.7 |
D&A / Revenue | 23.7% | 23% | 22.3% | |||||
Capex | -650 | -793.3 | -755.6 | -1,056.6 | -831.6 | -926.1 | -926.1 | -926.1 |
Capex / Revenue | -12.3% | -14% | -12.7% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 148.9 | 258.1 | -72.5 | 116.6 | 121.5 | 126.2 | 126.2 | 126.2 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 2.8% | 4.6% | -1.2% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 3,249.8 | 3,486.2 | 3,569.3 | 3,419.8 | 3,921.7 | 3,961 | 3,961 | 3,961 |
UFCF % Chg. | -4.9% | 7.3% | 2.4% | -4.2% | 14.7% | 1% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 3,192.2 | 3,417.2 | 3,221.9 | 3,007.5 | 2,807.4 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 3,192.2 | 6,609.5 | 9,831.3 | 12,838.8 | 15,646.3 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 24,784.8 |
| Market Cap | 59,515.5 |
| Total Capital | 84,300.3 |
| Debt Weighting | 29.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 70.6% |
| WACC | 7.1% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 84,948.9 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 56,202.8 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 15,646.3 |
| Net Debt | 24,768 |
| Equity Value | 47,081 |
| Shares Outstanding | 326.5 |
| Implied Share Price | 144.2 |
| Current Share Price | 183.3 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -21.3% |