TransDigm Group Incorporated
NYSE-TDG
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2023-09-30 (A) | 2024-09-30 (A) | 2025-09-30 (A) | 2026-09-30 (E) | 2027-09-30 (E) | 2028-09-30 (E) | 2029-09-30 (E) | 2030-09-30 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 6,585 | 7,940 | 8,831 | 9,936.3 | 10,711 | 11,460 | 11,460 | 11,460 |
Revenue % Chg. | 21.3% | 20.6% | 11.2% | |||||
EBIT | 2,923 | 3,598 | 4,199 | 4,614 | 5,146.5 | 5,686.3 | 5,686.3 | 5,686.3 |
EBIT Margin | 44.4% | 45.3% | 47.5% | |||||
Tax Rate | 24.3% | 22.6% | 21.1% | |||||
NOPAT | 2,212.7 | 2,785.8 | 3,312.6 | 3,539.7 | 3,948.3 | 4,335.8 | 4,335.8 | 4,335.8 |
NOPAT Margin | 33.6% | 35.1% | 37.5% | 35.6% | 36.9% | 37.8% | 37.8% | 37.8% |
D&A | 268 | 312 | 367 | 392.7 | 386.3 | 400.7 | 400.7 | 400.7 |
D&A / Revenue | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | |||||
Capex | -139 | -165 | -222 | -292.9 | -280.7 | -287.7 | -287.7 | -287.7 |
Capex / Revenue | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.5% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -431 | -302 | -558 | -552 | -595.1 | -636.7 | -636.7 | -636.7 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -6.5% | -3.8% | -6.3% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 1,910.7 | 2,630.8 | 2,899.6 | 3,087.4 | 3,458.8 | 3,812.1 | 3,812.1 | 3,812.1 |
UFCF % Chg. | 23.4% | 37.7% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 12% | 10.2% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,873 | 2,995 | 3,071.7 | 2,858.4 | 2,659.8 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,873 | 5,868 | 8,939.7 | 11,798.1 | 14,457.9 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.4% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 30,084 |
| Market Cap | 76,598.9 |
| Total Capital | 106,682.9 |
| Debt Weighting | 28.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 71.8% |
| WACC | 7.5% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 103,878.9 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 67,445.5 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 14,457.9 |
| Net Debt | 27,273 |
| Equity Value | 54,630.5 |
| Shares Outstanding | 56.3 |
| Implied Share Price | 970 |
| Current Share Price | 1,360.1 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -28.7% |