BUILD UP FREE CASH
2013-12-31 (A)
2014-12-31 (A)
2015-12-31 (A)
2016-12-31 (E)
2017-12-31 (E)
2018-12-31 (E)
2019-12-31 (E)
2020-12-31 (E)

Revenue

22,12022,81223,69725,30326,40329,21129,21129,211

Revenue % Chg.

3.4%3.1%3.9%

EBIT

4,6894,8584,4424,7975,1216,3536,3536,353

EBIT Margin

21.2%21.3%18.7%

Tax Rate

35.7%37.5%38.3%

NOPAT

3,014.93,037.72,741.32,964.53,226.23,938.93,938.93,938.9

NOPAT Margin

13.6%13.3%11.6%11.7%12.2%13.5%13.5%13.5%

D&A

3,0113,0543,3353,8954,1163,7243,7243,724

D&A / Revenue

13.6%13.4%14.1%

Capex

-3,198-4,097-4,446-4,700-3,632-3,619-3,619-3,619

Capex / Revenue

-14.5%-18%-18.8%

Chg. NWC

120151457264.2275.7305.1305.1305.1

Chg. NWC / Revenue

0.5%0.7%1.9%

Unlevered FCF (UFCF)

2,947.92,145.72,087.32,423.83,9864,348.94,348.94,348.9

UFCF % Chg.

3.1%-27.2%-2.7%16.1%64.5%9.1%——

PV of UFCF

———2,259.93,465.23,525.23,286.83,064.6

Sum of PV of UFCF

———2,259.95,725.29,250.312,537.215,601.8
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate
After Tax Cost of Debt3.8%
Risk Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Beta1
Cost of Equity8.6%
Total Debt22,589
Market Cap59,787
Total Capital82,376
Debt Weighting27.4%
Equity Weighting72.6%
WACC7.3%
Exit Multiple EV/FCF
Terminal Value81,115
PV of Terminal Value53,296.6
Cumulative PV of UFCF15,601.8
Net Debt21,324
Equity Value47,574.4
Shares Outstanding284.7
Implied Share Price167.1
Current Share Price209.6
Implied Upside / (Downside)-20.3%