UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
NYSE-UNH
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 324,162 | 371,622 | 400,278 | 447,526.5 | 456,772.2 | 478,514.3 | 478,514.3 | 478,514.3 |
Revenue % Chg. | 12.7% | 14.6% | 7.7% | |||||
EBIT | 28,435 | 32,358 | 32,287 | 21,883.1 | 24,057.5 | 26,832.4 | 26,832.4 | 26,832.4 |
EBIT Margin | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | |||||
Tax Rate | 21.7% | 20.5% | 24.1% | |||||
NOPAT | 22,278 | 25,724.6 | 24,518.9 | 17,807.4 | 18,981.3 | 21,092.5 | 21,092.5 | 21,092.5 |
NOPAT Margin | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
D&A | 2,400 | 2,772 | 2,699 | 4,326.4 | 4,353 | 4,495.7 | 4,495.7 | 4,495.7 |
D&A / Revenue | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | |||||
Capex | -2,802 | -3,386 | -3,499 | -3,741.2 | -3,988.3 | -4,184.1 | -4,184.1 | -4,184.1 |
Capex / Revenue | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 2,246 | 1,643 | -808 | 1,392 | 1,420.7 | 1,488.4 | 1,488.4 | 1,488.4 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 0.7% | 0.4% | -0.2% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 24,122 | 26,753.6 | 22,910.9 | 19,784.5 | 20,766.8 | 22,892.5 | 22,892.5 | 22,892.5 |
UFCF % Chg. | 18.7% | 10.9% | -14.4% | -13.6% | 5% | 10.2% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 18,356.5 | 17,877.2 | 18,284.7 | 16,964.9 | 15,740.4 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 18,356.5 | 36,233.7 | 54,518.4 | 71,483.3 | 87,223.8 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 81,793 |
| Market Cap | 309,651.9 |
| Total Capital | 391,444.9 |
| Debt Weighting | 20.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 79.1% |
| WACC | 7.8% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 372,603.9 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 237,703.3 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 87,223.8 |
| Net Debt | 52,926 |
| Equity Value | 272,001.1 |
| Shares Outstanding | 905.8 |
| Implied Share Price | 300.3 |
| Current Share Price | 341.8 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -12.2% |