Vistra Corp.
NYSE-VST
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 13,728 | 14,779 | 17,224 | 19,733 | 22,595.5 | 24,134.5 | 24,134.5 | 24,134.5 |
Revenue % Chg. | 13.7% | 7.7% | 16.5% | |||||
EBIT | -1,103 | 2,710 | 4,081 | 3,443.3 | 4,975 | 5,493.7 | 5,493.7 | 5,493.7 |
EBIT Margin | -8% | 18.3% | 23.7% | |||||
Tax Rate | 22.4% | 25.4% | 18.9% | |||||
NOPAT | -855.5 | 2,021.7 | 3,310 | 2,678.3 | 3,860 | 4,264.9 | 4,264.9 | 4,264.9 |
NOPAT Margin | -6.2% | 13.7% | 19.2% | 13.6% | 17.1% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 17.7% |
D&A | 2,012 | 1,932 | 2,685 | 2,234.8 | 2,292.3 | 2,380.5 | 2,380.5 | 2,380.5 |
D&A / Revenue | 14.7% | 13.1% | 15.6% | |||||
Capex | -1,301 | -1,676 | -2,078 | -2,188.7 | -2,292.4 | -2,176.9 | -2,176.9 | -2,176.9 |
Capex / Revenue | -9.5% | -11.3% | -12.1% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -2,665 | 1,508 | -504 | -798.2 | -914 | -976.3 | -976.3 | -976.3 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -19.4% | 10.2% | -2.9% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | -2,809.5 | 3,785.7 | 3,413 | 1,926.2 | 2,945.9 | 3,492.2 | 3,492.2 | 3,492.2 |
UFCF % Chg. | 90.4% | -234.7% | -9.8% | -43.6% | 52.9% | 18.5% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 1,790.2 | 2,544.7 | 2,803.7 | 2,605.8 | 2,421.9 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 1,790.2 | 4,334.9 | 7,138.6 | 9,744.5 | 12,166.4 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 17,413 |
| Market Cap | 56,641.5 |
| Total Capital | 74,054.5 |
| Debt Weighting | 23.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 76.5% |
| WACC | 7.6% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 76,048.5 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 49,017.9 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 12,166.4 |
| Net Debt | 16,918 |
| Equity Value | 44,266.3 |
| Shares Outstanding | 338.8 |
| Implied Share Price | 130.6 |
| Current Share Price | 166 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -21.3% |