Exxon Mobil Corporation
NYSE-XOM
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 400,737 | 336,665 | 340,568 | 327,265.1 | 321,875.1 | 337,686.2 | 337,686.2 | 337,686.2 |
Revenue % Chg. | 44.6% | -16% | 1.2% | |||||
EBIT | 70,208 | 49,015 | 41,460 | 44,104.4 | 40,728.2 | 44,549.2 | 44,549.2 | 44,549.2 |
EBIT Margin | 17.5% | 14.6% | 12.2% | |||||
Tax Rate | 25.9% | 29.2% | 28.3% | |||||
NOPAT | 51,989.9 | 34,687.4 | 29,744.7 | 30,312.4 | 27,719.6 | 30,866.3 | 30,866.3 | 30,866.3 |
NOPAT Margin | 13% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
D&A | 19,440 | 17,341 | 22,834 | 24,893.7 | 26,305.9 | 27,450.2 | 27,450.2 | 27,450.2 |
D&A / Revenue | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | |||||
Capex | -18,407 | -21,919 | -24,306 | -28,110.1 | -27,628.5 | -28,766.2 | -28,766.2 | -28,766.2 |
Capex / Revenue | -4.6% | -6.5% | -7.1% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -194 | -4,255 | -1,826 | -2,016.4 | -1,983.2 | -2,080.6 | -2,080.6 | -2,080.6 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -0% | -1.3% | -0.5% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 52,828.9 | 25,854.4 | 26,446.7 | 25,079.6 | 24,413.7 | 27,469.7 | 27,469.7 | 27,469.7 |
UFCF % Chg. | 74.4% | -51.1% | 2.3% | -5.2% | -2.7% | 12.5% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 23,203.6 | 20,898 | 21,755 | 20,127.7 | 18,622.1 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 23,203.6 | 44,101.6 | 65,856.5 | 85,984.2 | 104,606.2 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 1.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 48,309 |
| Market Cap | 501,083.6 |
| Total Capital | 549,392.6 |
| Debt Weighting | 8.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 91.2% |
| WACC | 8.1% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 536,967.6 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 336,788.6 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 104,606.2 |
| Net Debt | 28,222 |
| Equity Value | 413,172.8 |
| Shares Outstanding | 4,217.2 |
| Implied Share Price | 98 |
| Current Share Price | 118.8 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -17.5% |