Airbnb, Inc.
NasdaqGS-ABNB
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 8,399 | 9,917 | 11,102 | 12,168.6 | 13,367.3 | 14,703.9 | 14,703.9 | 14,703.9 |
Revenue % Chg. | 40.2% | 18.1% | 11.9% | |||||
EBIT | 1,893 | 1,518 | 2,553 | 2,618.1 | 3,011.5 | 3,554.9 | 3,554.9 | 3,554.9 |
EBIT Margin | 22.5% | 15.3% | 23% | |||||
Tax Rate | 4.8% | -128% | 20.5% | |||||
NOPAT | 1,801.6 | 3,460.6 | 2,029.5 | 2,078.1 | 2,420.6 | 2,879.8 | 2,879.8 | 2,879.8 |
NOPAT Margin | 21.5% | 34.9% | 18.3% | 17.1% | 18.1% | 19.6% | 19.6% | 19.6% |
D&A | 53 | 31 | 31 | 87.4 | 75 | 73.1 | 73.1 | 73.1 |
D&A / Revenue | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |||||
Capex | — | — | — | -47.2 | -52.1 | -59.8 | -59.8 | -59.8 |
Capex / Revenue | — | — | — | |||||
Chg. NWC | 319 | 720 | -67 | 424.1 | 465.8 | 512.4 | 512.4 | 512.4 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 3.8% | 7.3% | -0.6% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 2,173.6 | 4,211.6 | 1,993.5 | 2,542.4 | 2,909.3 | 3,405.5 | 3,405.5 | 3,405.5 |
UFCF % Chg. | 48% | 93.8% | -52.7% | 27.5% | 14.4% | 17.1% | 0% | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,344.9 | 2,474.8 | 2,671.9 | 2,464.3 | 2,272.8 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,344.9 | 4,819.6 | 7,491.5 | 9,955.8 | 12,228.6 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | — |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 2,294 |
| Market Cap | 75,381.4 |
| Total Capital | 77,675.4 |
| Debt Weighting | 3% |
| Equity Weighting | 97% |
| WACC | 8.4% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 65,975.4 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 40,610.5 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 12,228.6 |
| Net Debt | -9,406 |
| Equity Value | 62,245 |
| Shares Outstanding | 606.3 |
| Implied Share Price | 102.7 |
| Current Share Price | 124.3 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -17.4% |