Amazon.com, Inc.
NasdaqGS-AMZN
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 513,983 | 574,785 | 637,959 | 714,722.4 | 793,799.1 | 883,549.2 | 883,549.2 | 883,549.2 |
Revenue % Chg. | 9.4% | 11.8% | 11% | |||||
EBIT | 13,348 | 36,852 | 68,593 | 79,935.3 | 100,409.2 | 124,198 | 124,198 | 124,198 |
EBIT Margin | 2.6% | 6.4% | 10.8% | |||||
Tax Rate | 54.2% | 19% | 13.5% | |||||
NOPAT | 6,117.7 | 29,863.4 | 59,317.2 | 64,579.8 | 82,059.4 | 101,924.9 | 101,924.9 | 101,924.9 |
NOPAT Margin | 1.2% | 5.2% | 9.3% | 9% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% |
D&A | 41,921 | 48,663 | 51,875 | 64,154.1 | 78,051.7 | 97,661.8 | 97,661.8 | 97,661.8 |
D&A / Revenue | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | |||||
Capex | -63,645 | -52,729 | -82,999 | -124,020.6 | -137,309.7 | -148,435 | -148,435 | -148,435 |
Capex / Revenue | -12.4% | -9.2% | -13% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -20,886 | -11,541 | -15,541 | -20,268.3 | -22,510.8 | -25,056 | -25,056 | -25,056 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -4.1% | -2% | -2.4% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | -36,492.3 | 14,256.4 | 12,652.2 | -15,555 | 290.6 | 26,095.8 | 26,095.8 | 26,095.8 |
UFCF % Chg. | 49.1% | -139.1% | -11.3% | -222.9% | -101.9% | 8,881.4% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | -14,368.4 | 247.9 | 20,567.6 | 18,998.6 | 17,549.2 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | -14,368.4 | -14,120.5 | 6,447.1 | 25,445.6 | 42,994.9 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 1.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 155,401 |
| Market Cap | 2,418,020 |
| Total Capital | 2,573,421 |
| Debt Weighting | 6% |
| Equity Weighting | 94% |
| WACC | 8.3% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 2,484,261 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 1,543,200.3 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 42,994.9 |
| Net Debt | 66,241 |
| Equity Value | 1,519,954.2 |
| Shares Outstanding | 10,690.2 |
| Implied Share Price | 142.2 |
| Current Share Price | 226.2 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -37.1% |