Costco Wholesale Corporation
NasdaqGS-COST
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2023-09-03 (A) | 2024-09-01 (A) | 2025-08-31 (A) | 2026-08-31 (E) | 2027-08-31 (E) | 2028-08-31 (E) | 2029-08-31 (E) | 2030-08-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 242,290 | 254,453 | 275,235 | 297,470 | 319,527.1 | 342,736.5 | 342,736.5 | 342,736.5 |
Revenue % Chg. | 6.8% | 5% | 8.2% | |||||
EBIT | 8,505 | 9,285 | 10,383 | 11,567.7 | 12,754.3 | 14,102.7 | 14,102.7 | 14,102.7 |
EBIT Margin | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | |||||
Tax Rate | 25.9% | 24.4% | 25.1% | |||||
NOPAT | 6,305.4 | 7,022.9 | 7,773.3 | 8,674 | 9,525.8 | 10,566.9 | 10,566.9 | 10,566.9 |
NOPAT Margin | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
D&A | 2,077 | 2,237 | 2,426 | 2,649.2 | 2,778.5 | 2,970.9 | 2,970.9 | 2,970.9 |
D&A / Revenue | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | |||||
Capex | -4,323 | -4,710 | -5,498 | -6,337.6 | -6,372.7 | -6,503.7 | -6,503.7 | -6,503.7 |
Capex / Revenue | -1.8% | -1.9% | -2% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 1,018 | 611 | 1,764 | 1,290.2 | 1,385.9 | 1,486.5 | 1,486.5 | 1,486.5 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 5,077.4 | 5,160.9 | 6,465.3 | 6,275.9 | 7,317.4 | 8,520.7 | 8,520.7 | 8,520.7 |
UFCF % Chg. | 110.3% | 1.6% | 25.3% | -2.9% | 16.6% | 16.4% | 0% | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 5,782.4 | 6,212 | 6,664.8 | 6,140.8 | 5,658 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 5,782.4 | 11,994.5 | 18,659.3 | 24,800 | 30,458 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 1.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 9,935 |
| Market Cap | 392,633 |
| Total Capital | 402,568 |
| Debt Weighting | 2.5% |
| Equity Weighting | 97.5% |
| WACC | 8.5% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 383,552 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 234,662.3 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 30,458 |
| Net Debt | -9,081 |
| Equity Value | 274,201.3 |
| Shares Outstanding | 443.9 |
| Implied Share Price | 617.7 |
| Current Share Price | 884.5 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -30.2% |