Alphabet Inc.
NasdaqGS-GOOGL
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 282,836 | 307,394 | 350,018 | 400,112.1 | 454,660 | 512,848.8 | 512,848.8 | 512,848.8 |
Revenue % Chg. | 9.8% | 8.7% | 13.9% | |||||
EBIT | 74,842 | 84,293 | 114,186 | 130,186.6 | 154,297.3 | 177,307.4 | 177,307.4 | 177,307.4 |
EBIT Margin | 26.5% | 27.4% | 32.6% | |||||
Tax Rate | 15.9% | 13.9% | 16.4% | |||||
NOPAT | 62,926.6 | 72,569.1 | 95,414.4 | 107,023.1 | 128,981.4 | 148,654.5 | 148,654.5 | 148,654.5 |
NOPAT Margin | 22.2% | 23.6% | 27.3% | 26.7% | 28.4% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
D&A | 13,475 | 11,946 | 15,311 | 21,578.6 | 29,868.8 | 39,979.1 | 39,979.1 | 39,979.1 |
D&A / Revenue | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | |||||
Capex | -31,485 | -32,251 | -52,535 | -90,585.6 | -117,008.5 | -131,958.5 | -131,958.5 | -131,958.5 |
Capex / Revenue | -11.1% | -10.5% | -15% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -2,235 | -3,845 | -8,406 | -5,925.2 | -6,733 | -7,594.7 | -7,594.7 | -7,594.7 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -0.8% | -1.3% | -2.4% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 42,681.6 | 48,419.1 | 49,784.4 | 32,090.9 | 35,108.7 | 49,080.4 | 49,080.4 | 49,080.4 |
UFCF % Chg. | -14.8% | 13.4% | 2.8% | -35.5% | 9.4% | 39.8% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 29,534.5 | 29,737.9 | 38,260.6 | 35,212.7 | 32,407.6 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 29,534.5 | 59,272.4 | 97,533 | 132,745.6 | 165,153.2 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 0.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 30,437 |
| Market Cap | 3,738,853 |
| Total Capital | 3,769,290 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.2% |
| WACC | 8.7% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 3,684,552 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 2,239,084.4 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 165,153.2 |
| Net Debt | -54,301 |
| Equity Value | 2,458,538.6 |
| Shares Outstanding | 12,067 |
| Implied Share Price | 203.7 |
| Current Share Price | 309.3 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -34.1% |