Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
NasdaqGS-KDP
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 14,057 | 14,814 | 15,351 | 16,410 | 17,176.5 | 17,825.7 | 17,825.7 | 17,825.7 |
Revenue % Chg. | 10.8% | 5.4% | 3.6% | |||||
EBIT | 2,874 | 3,221 | 3,396 | 4,147.4 | 4,463.1 | 4,651.3 | 4,651.3 | 4,651.3 |
EBIT Margin | 20.4% | 21.7% | 22.1% | |||||
Tax Rate | 16.5% | 20.9% | 24.7% | |||||
NOPAT | 2,399.2 | 2,548.1 | 2,556.8 | 3,204.1 | 3,441.5 | 3,593.2 | 3,593.2 | 3,593.2 |
NOPAT Margin | 17.1% | 17.2% | 16.7% | 19.5% | 20% | 20.2% | 20.2% | 20.2% |
D&A | 709 | 720 | 733 | 628 | 669.5 | 649.3 | 649.3 | 649.3 |
D&A / Revenue | 5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | |||||
Capex | -353 | -425 | -563 | -514.2 | -557.1 | -579 | -579 | -579 |
Capex / Revenue | -2.5% | -2.9% | -3.7% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -275 | -1,747 | -591 | -962.7 | -1,007.6 | -1,045.7 | -1,045.7 | -1,045.7 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -2% | -11.8% | -3.8% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 2,480.2 | 1,096.1 | 2,135.8 | 2,355.3 | 2,546.3 | 2,617.8 | 2,617.8 | 2,617.8 |
UFCF % Chg. | -16.2% | -55.8% | 94.9% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 2.8% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,201.4 | 2,224.4 | 2,137.4 | 1,997.7 | 1,867.2 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,201.4 | 4,425.8 | 6,563.2 | 8,560.9 | 10,428.1 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 18,330 |
| Market Cap | 38,488.7 |
| Total Capital | 56,818.7 |
| Debt Weighting | 32.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 67.7% |
| WACC | 7% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 56,602.7 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 37,735 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 10,428.1 |
| Net Debt | 18,114 |
| Equity Value | 30,049.1 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,358.6 |
| Implied Share Price | 22.1 |
| Current Share Price | 28.3 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -21.9% |