Netflix, Inc.
NasdaqGS-NFLX
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 31,615.6 | 33,723.3 | 39,001 | 45,087.4 | 50,978.9 | 56,682.4 | 56,682.4 | 56,682.4 |
Revenue % Chg. | 6.5% | 6.7% | 15.6% | |||||
EBIT | 5,632.8 | 6,954 | 10,417.6 | 13,310.5 | 16,610.6 | 19,677.2 | 19,677.2 | 19,677.2 |
EBIT Margin | 17.8% | 20.6% | 26.7% | |||||
Tax Rate | 14.7% | 12.9% | 12.6% | |||||
NOPAT | 4,806.7 | 6,060.4 | 9,106.7 | 11,469 | 14,344.3 | 16,949.6 | 16,949.6 | 16,949.6 |
NOPAT Margin | 15.2% | 18% | 23.3% | 25.4% | 28.1% | 29.9% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
D&A | 336.7 | 356.9 | 328.9 | 331.1 | 375.6 | 406.2 | 406.2 | 406.2 |
D&A / Revenue | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | |||||
Capex | -407.7 | -348.6 | -439.5 | -569.2 | -565.7 | -601.1 | -601.1 | -601.1 |
Capex / Revenue | -1.3% | -1% | -1.1% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -758.1 | -116.1 | -33.1 | -424.9 | -480.4 | -534.1 | -534.1 | -534.1 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -2.4% | -0.3% | -0.1% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 3,977.6 | 5,952.6 | 8,963 | 10,806.1 | 13,673.8 | 16,220.6 | 16,220.6 | 16,220.6 |
UFCF % Chg. | -18.3% | 49.7% | 50.6% | 20.6% | 26.5% | 18.6% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 9,953.1 | 11,600.2 | 12,674.6 | 11,674 | 10,752.5 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 9,953.1 | 21,553.3 | 34,227.8 | 45,901.9 | 56,654.4 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.8% |
| Total Debt | 17,995 |
| Market Cap | 429,943.8 |
| Total Capital | 447,938.8 |
| Debt Weighting | 4% |
| Equity Weighting | 96% |
| WACC | 8.6% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 437,702.9 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 267,246.5 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 56,654.4 |
| Net Debt | 7,759.1 |
| Equity Value | 316,141.8 |
| Shares Outstanding | 4,569.5 |
| Implied Share Price | 69.2 |
| Current Share Price | 94.1 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -26.5% |