Seagate Technology Holdings plc
NasdaqGS-STX
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2023-06-30 (A) | 2024-06-28 (A) | 2025-06-27 (A) | 2026-06-30 (E) | 2027-06-30 (E) | 2028-06-30 (E) | 2029-06-30 (E) | 2030-06-30 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 7,384 | 6,551 | 9,097 | 10,989.7 | 12,619 | 13,496.7 | 13,496.7 | 13,496.7 |
Revenue % Chg. | -36.7% | -11.3% | 38.9% | |||||
EBIT | -124 | 434 | 1,928 | 3,339.6 | 4,227.4 | 4,531.6 | 4,531.6 | 4,531.6 |
EBIT Margin | -1.7% | 6.6% | 21.2% | |||||
Tax Rate | -6.7% | 24.7% | 2.9% | |||||
NOPAT | -132.2 | 326.7 | 1,871.9 | 2,837.5 | 3,561.6 | 3,821.7 | 3,821.7 | 3,821.7 |
NOPAT Margin | -1.8% | 5% | 20.6% | 25.8% | 28.2% | 28.3% | 28.3% | 28.3% |
D&A | 428 | 251 | 251 | 335 | 374 | 467.7 | 467.7 | 467.7 |
D&A / Revenue | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | |||||
Capex | -316 | -254 | -265 | -466.4 | -494.4 | -524.5 | -524.5 | -524.5 |
Capex / Revenue | -4.3% | -3.9% | -2.9% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 1,162 | 386 | -965 | 403.7 | 463.6 | 495.8 | 495.8 | 495.8 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 15.7% | 5.9% | -10.6% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 1,141.8 | 709.7 | 892.9 | 3,109.9 | 3,904.8 | 4,260.7 | 4,260.7 | 4,260.7 |
UFCF % Chg. | -15.4% | -37.8% | 25.8% | 248.3% | 25.6% | 9.1% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,867.3 | 3,319.4 | 3,339.4 | 3,078.9 | 2,838.8 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,867.3 | 6,186.7 | 9,526.1 | 12,605.1 | 15,443.8 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 5.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 5,373 |
| Market Cap | 67,070.8 |
| Total Capital | 72,443.8 |
| Debt Weighting | 7.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 92.6% |
| WACC | 8.5% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 70,952.8 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 43,586.1 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 15,443.8 |
| Net Debt | 3,882 |
| Equity Value | 55,147.9 |
| Shares Outstanding | 217.9 |
| Implied Share Price | 253.1 |
| Current Share Price | 307.8 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -17.8% |