Equinor ASA
OB-EQNR
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 149,004 | 106,848 | 102,502 | 103,750.6 | 98,031.6 | 95,985.2 | 95,985.2 | 95,985.2 |
Revenue % Chg. | 64.3% | -28.3% | -4.1% | |||||
EBIT | 74,072 | 36,038 | 29,110 | 28,101.3 | 24,318 | 24,372.4 | 24,372.4 | 24,372.4 |
EBIT Margin | 49.7% | 33.7% | 28.4% | |||||
Tax Rate | 63.4% | 68.6% | 71.5% | |||||
NOPAT | 27,085.8 | 11,324 | 8,294.5 | 6,856.7 | 6,770.1 | 7,238.6 | 7,238.6 | 7,238.6 |
NOPAT Margin | 18.2% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
D&A | 9,220 | 9,321 | 9,755 | 10,776.8 | 10,136.6 | 10,394.1 | 10,394.1 | 10,394.1 |
D&A / Revenue | 6.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | |||||
Capex | -8,758 | -10,575 | -12,177 | -12,781.8 | -12,942.9 | -12,301 | -12,301 | -12,301 |
Capex / Revenue | -5.9% | -9.9% | -11.9% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -4,616 | 4,960 | 2,218 | 1,282.4 | 1,211.7 | 1,186.4 | 1,186.4 | 1,186.4 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -3.1% | 4.6% | 2.2% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 22,931.8 | 15,030 | 8,090.5 | 6,134.1 | 5,175.6 | 6,518.2 | 6,518.2 | 6,518.2 |
UFCF % Chg. | 213.3% | -34.5% | -46.2% | -24.2% | -15.6% | 25.9% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 5,667.3 | 4,418 | 5,140.6 | 4,749.5 | 4,388.1 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 5,667.3 | 10,085.3 | 15,225.9 | 19,975.4 | 24,363.5 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 0.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.6% |
| Total Debt | 30,094 |
| Market Cap | 589,343.9 |
| Total Capital | 619,437.9 |
| Debt Weighting | 4.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 95.1% |
| WACC | 8.2% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 675,550.5 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 420,181.6 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 24,363.5 |
| Net Debt | 8,564 |
| Equity Value | 435,981 |
| Shares Outstanding | 2,505.7 |
| Implied Share Price | 174 |
| Current Share Price | 22.9 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | 660.5% |