The People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Limited
SEHK-1339
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 492,823 | 525,327 | 581,530 | 572,885.1 | 629,110.2 | 704,049.1 | 704,049.1 | 704,049.1 |
Revenue % Chg. | -17.1% | 6.6% | 10.7% | |||||
EBIT | 45,744 | 37,075 | 72,499 | 73,517.5 | 75,686.2 | 84,940.1 | 84,940.1 | 84,940.1 |
EBIT Margin | 9.3% | 7.1% | 12.5% | |||||
Tax Rate | 17% | 8.2% | 18% | |||||
NOPAT | 37,958.9 | 34,041.2 | 59,460.5 | 59,475.6 | 61,230.1 | 69,056.3 | 69,056.3 | 69,056.3 |
NOPAT Margin | 7.7% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% |
D&A | 4,145 | 3,820 | 3,570 | 3,516.9 | 3,862.1 | 4,322.1 | 4,322.1 | 4,322.1 |
D&A / Revenue | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | |||||
Capex | -6,576 | -3,573 | -4,397 | -17,176 | -18,586 | -20,107 | -20,107 | -20,107 |
Capex / Revenue | -1.3% | -0.7% | -0.8% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 82,199 | 79,460 | 101,623 | 94,106.2 | 103,342.1 | 115,652.1 | 115,652.1 | 115,652.1 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 16.7% | 15.1% | 17.5% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 117,726.9 | 113,748.2 | 160,256.5 | 139,922.8 | 149,848.3 | 168,923.6 | 168,923.6 | 168,923.6 |
UFCF % Chg. | -2.3% | -3.4% | 40.9% | -12.7% | 7.1% | 12.7% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 128,110.3 | 125,615.4 | 129,651.4 | 118,706 | 108,684.7 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 128,110.3 | 253,725.7 | 383,377.1 | 502,083.1 | 610,767.7 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 0.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
| Total Debt | 163,838 |
| Market Cap | 2,707,484.5 |
| Total Capital | 2,871,322.5 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 94.3% |
| WACC | 9.2% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 4,662,513.7 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 2,746,589.3 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 610,767.7 |
| Net Debt | 139,198 |
| Equity Value | 3,218,159.1 |
| Shares Outstanding | 44,224 |
| Implied Share Price | 72.8 |
| Current Share Price | 123.3 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -41% |