Meituan
SEHK-3690
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 219,954.9 | 276,745 | 337,591.6 | 366,915.8 | 417,689 | 479,759.4 | 479,759.4 | 479,759.4 |
Revenue % Chg. | 22.8% | 25.8% | 22% | |||||
EBIT | -6,603.7 | 8,997.4 | 33,158.5 | -22,426.8 | 20,635.4 | 42,030.2 | 42,030.2 | 42,030.2 |
EBIT Margin | -3% | 3.3% | 9.8% | |||||
Tax Rate | 1% | 1.2% | 5.7% | |||||
NOPAT | -6,535.1 | 8,891.8 | 31,258.1 | -20,744.8 | 19,124.9 | 37,947.2 | 37,947.2 | 37,947.2 |
NOPAT Margin | -3% | 3.2% | 9.3% | -5.7% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% |
D&A | 9,666 | 7,934 | 8,352.8 | 9,726.4 | 10,745 | 11,667.7 | 11,667.7 | 11,667.7 |
D&A / Revenue | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | |||||
Capex | -5,731.3 | -6,879.6 | -10,999.5 | -12,571 | -12,812 | -13,769.7 | -13,769.7 | -13,769.7 |
Capex / Revenue | -2.6% | -2.5% | -3.3% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -813.5 | 13,475.5 | 6,465.6 | 7,845.5 | 8,931.1 | 10,258.3 | 10,258.3 | 10,258.3 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -0.4% | 4.9% | 1.9% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | -3,414 | 23,421.8 | 35,077 | -15,743.9 | 25,989 | 46,103.6 | 46,103.6 | 46,103.6 |
UFCF % Chg. | -82.1% | -786.1% | 49.8% | -144.9% | -265.1% | 77.4% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | -14,353.9 | 21,602.5 | 34,938.7 | 31,854 | 29,041.7 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | -14,353.9 | 7,248.6 | 42,187.3 | 74,041.3 | 103,083 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 2.1% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.8% |
| Total Debt | 61,509.6 |
| Market Cap | 4,378,969.4 |
| Total Capital | 4,440,479 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.4% |
| Equity Weighting | 98.6% |
| WACC | 9.7% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 3,683,603.3 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 2,115,517.9 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 103,083 |
| Net Debt | -90,021.8 |
| Equity Value | 2,308,622.7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 6,108.1 |
| Implied Share Price | 378 |
| Current Share Price | 92.6 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | 308% |