Tencent Holdings Limited
SEHK-700
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 554,552 | 609,015 | 660,257 | 752,100.5 | 825,666 | 905,502.6 | 905,502.6 | 905,502.6 |
Revenue % Chg. | -1% | 9.8% | 8.4% | |||||
EBIT | 110,880 | 162,964 | 207,960 | 251,440.1 | 288,042.2 | 323,723.5 | 323,723.5 | 323,723.5 |
EBIT Margin | 20% | 26.8% | 31.5% | |||||
Tax Rate | 10.2% | 26.8% | 18.6% | |||||
NOPAT | 99,531.8 | 119,248.1 | 169,191.9 | 206,616.7 | 234,197.5 | 261,784.4 | 261,784.4 | 261,784.4 |
NOPAT Margin | 17.9% | 19.6% | 25.6% | 27.5% | 28.4% | 28.9% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
D&A | 30,137 | 27,387 | 28,323 | 64,817.8 | 76,268.7 | 89,431.2 | 89,431.2 | 89,431.2 |
D&A / Revenue | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | |||||
Capex | -22,679 | -21,008 | -62,927 | -97,288.5 | -98,578.6 | -107,883.5 | -107,883.5 | -107,883.5 |
Capex / Revenue | -4.1% | -3.4% | -9.5% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -18,472 | 19,233 | 21,881 | 7,874.7 | 8,645 | 9,480.9 | 9,480.9 | 9,480.9 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -3.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 88,517.8 | 144,860.1 | 156,468.9 | 182,020.7 | 220,532.5 | 252,813 | 252,813 | 252,813 |
UFCF % Chg. | -21.8% | 63.7% | 8% | 16.3% | 21.2% | 14.6% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 165,871.6 | 183,136.7 | 191,316.9 | 174,343 | 158,875.1 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 165,871.6 | 349,008.3 | 540,325.2 | 714,668.2 | 873,543.4 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 2.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.8% |
| Total Debt | 358,112 |
| Market Cap | 46,090,187.7 |
| Total Capital | 46,448,299.7 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.8% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.2% |
| WACC | 9.7% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 46,769,821.3 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 26,783,889.1 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 873,543.4 |
| Net Debt | -13,356 |
| Equity Value | 27,670,788.5 |
| Shares Outstanding | 9,033.5 |
| Implied Share Price | 3,063.1 |
| Current Share Price | 548.3 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | 458.6% |