Asia Pacific Breweries Limited
SGX-A46
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2010-09-30 (A) | 2011-09-30 (A) | 2012-09-30 (A) | 2013-09-30 (E) | 2014-09-30 (E) | 2015-09-30 (E) | 2016-09-30 (E) | 2017-09-30 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 2,511.1 | 2,974.2 | 3,350.3 | 3,350.3 | 3,350.3 | 3,350.3 | 3,350.3 | 3,350.3 |
Revenue % Chg. | 25.6% | 18.4% | 12.6% | |||||
EBIT | 466.4 | 579.8 | 753.1 | 676.2 | 676.2 | 676.2 | 676.2 | 676.2 |
EBIT Margin | 18.6% | 19.5% | 22.5% | |||||
Tax Rate | 27.6% | 30.5% | 31.4% | |||||
NOPAT | 337.6 | 403 | 517 | 474.5 | 474.5 | 474.5 | 474.5 | 474.5 |
NOPAT Margin | 13.4% | 13.5% | 15.4% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% |
D&A | 66.6 | 69.4 | 76.5 | 81.2 | 81.2 | 81.2 | 81.2 | 81.2 |
D&A / Revenue | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | |||||
Capex | -87.8 | -139.5 | -159.8 | -144.7 | -144.7 | -144.7 | -144.7 | -144.7 |
Capex / Revenue | -3.5% | -4.7% | -4.8% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -26.7 | 26.8 | -26.4 | -10.6 | -10.6 | -10.6 | -10.6 | -10.6 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -1.1% | 0.9% | -0.8% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 289.7 | 359.7 | 407.3 | 400.4 | 400.4 | 400.4 | 400.4 | 400.4 |
UFCF % Chg. | 26.4% | 24.2% | 13.2% | -1.7% | — | — | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 367.8 | 337.9 | 310.4 | 285.2 | 262 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 367.8 | 705.7 | 1,016.1 | 1,301.3 | 1,563.3 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 2.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.1% |
| Total Debt | 450 |
| Market Cap | 13,497.8 |
| Total Capital | 13,947.8 |
| Debt Weighting | 3.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 96.8% |
| WACC | 8.9% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 13,718.1 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 8,246.7 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 1,563.3 |
| Net Debt | 15.8 |
| Equity Value | 9,794.2 |
| Shares Outstanding | 258.2 |
| Implied Share Price | 37.9 |
| Current Share Price | 52.3 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -27.4% |