Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd.

SHSE-600519

BUILD UP FREE CASH	2022-12-31 (A)	2023-12-31 (A)	2024-12-31 (A)	2025-12-31 (E)	2026-12-31 (E)	2027-12-31 (E)	2028-12-31 (E)	2029-12-31 (E)
Revenue	124,099.8	147,693.6	170,899.2	185,361.9	198,391.7	213,509.4	213,509.4	213,509.4
Revenue % Chg.	16.9%	19%	15.7%
EBIT	83,059.1	99,124.8	115,012	125,383.4	135,159.7	146,283	146,283	146,283
EBIT Margin	66.9%	67.1%	67.3%
Tax Rate	25.5%	25.2%	25.3%
NOPAT	61,915.5	74,128.1	85,880.2	93,692.8	101,015	109,315.2	109,315.2	109,315.2
NOPAT Margin	49.9%	50.2%	50.3%	50.5%	50.9%	51.2%	51.2%	51.2%
D&A	1,677	1,920.5	2,009.9	2,165.5	2,322.1	2,492.5	2,492.5	2,492.5
D&A / Revenue	1.4%	1.3%	1.2%
Capex	-5,306.5	-2,619.8	-4,678.7	-3,992.7	-3,652.7	-3,456.3	-3,456.3	-3,456.3
Capex / Revenue	-4.3%	-1.8%	-2.7%
Chg. NWC	-30,349.3	-12,802.1	1,069.4	-20,079.5	-21,491	-23,128.6	-23,128.6	-23,128.6
Chg. NWC / Revenue	-24.5%	-8.7%	0.6%
Unlevered FCF (UFCF)	27,936.6	60,626.8	84,280.8	71,786	78,193.4	85,222.8	85,222.8	85,222.8
UFCF % Chg.	-51.6%	117%	39%	-14.8%	8.9%	9%	—	—
PV of UFCF	—	—	—	65,347.1	64,795.3	64,286	58,519.8	53,270.9
Sum of PV of UFCF	—	—	—	65,347.1	130,142.5	194,428.5	252,948.3	306,219.2

Perpetuity

Multiple