CSI Solar Co., Ltd.
SHSE-688472
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 47,536.1 | 51,309.6 | 46,165 | 40,123.5 | 48,730.5 | 59,963.4 | 59,963.4 | 59,963.4 |
Revenue % Chg. | 69.7% | 7.9% | -10% | |||||
EBIT | 2,512.2 | 3,274.6 | 2,921.1 | 1,695 | 3,457.4 | 4,500.6 | 4,500.6 | 4,500.6 |
EBIT Margin | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | |||||
Tax Rate | 17.9% | 9.6% | 13.4% | |||||
NOPAT | 2,062.2 | 2,961.1 | 2,530.3 | 1,474.7 | 2,991.8 | 3,894.5 | 3,894.5 | 3,894.5 |
NOPAT Margin | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
D&A | 1,578 | 2,169.7 | 3,385.2 | 3,560.2 | 4,036.8 | 4,446 | 4,446 | 4,446 |
D&A / Revenue | 3.3% | 4.2% | 7.3% | |||||
Capex | -4,222.2 | -8,204.1 | -7,868 | -4,966.6 | -4,710.2 | -4,784 | -4,784 | -4,784 |
Capex / Revenue | -8.9% | -16% | -17% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 763.4 | 1,675.2 | -5,675.3 | -992.7 | -1,205.7 | -1,483.6 | -1,483.6 | -1,483.6 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 1.6% | 3.3% | -12.3% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 181.4 | -1,398.1 | -7,627.9 | -924.5 | 1,112.7 | 2,072.9 | 2,072.9 | 2,072.9 |
UFCF % Chg. | -103.8% | -870.7% | 445.6% | -87.9% | -220.3% | 86.3% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | -856.1 | 954 | 1,645.7 | 1,523.8 | 1,410.9 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | -856.1 | 97.9 | 1,743.6 | 3,267.4 | 4,678.3 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 2.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
| Total Debt | 17,985.9 |
| Market Cap | 57,985.8 |
| Total Capital | 75,971.8 |
| Debt Weighting | 23.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 76.3% |
| WACC | 8% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 63,870.1 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 40,254.1 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 4,678.3 |
| Net Debt | 5,886.9 |
| Equity Value | 39,045.4 |
| Shares Outstanding | 3,601.6 |
| Implied Share Price | 10.8 |
| Current Share Price | 16.1 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -32.7% |