Holcim AG
SWX-HOLN
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 29,189 | 27,009 | 26,407 | 15,955.6 | 16,256.7 | 17,123.4 | 17,123.4 | 17,123.4 |
Revenue % Chg. | 8.8% | -7.5% | -2.2% | |||||
EBIT | 3,502 | 4,257 | 4,338 | 2,898.5 | 3,075.8 | 3,393.6 | 3,393.6 | 3,393.6 |
EBIT Margin | 12% | 15.8% | 16.4% | |||||
Tax Rate | 22.5% | 23.9% | 24.4% | |||||
NOPAT | 2,712.4 | 3,238.1 | 3,279.9 | 2,207.3 | 2,336.8 | 2,577.9 | 2,577.9 | 2,577.9 |
NOPAT Margin | 9.3% | 12% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.1% |
D&A | 2,194 | 1,977 | 2,017 | 1,132.1 | 1,130.8 | 1,160.5 | 1,160.5 | 1,160.5 |
D&A / Revenue | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | |||||
Capex | -1,549 | -1,505 | -1,650 | -989.4 | -1,092.7 | -1,137.5 | -1,137.5 | -1,137.5 |
Capex / Revenue | -5.3% | -5.6% | -6.2% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -325 | 152 | 218 | 14.6 | 14.9 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -1.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 3,032.4 | 3,862.1 | 3,864.9 | 2,364.7 | 2,389.8 | 2,616.6 | 2,616.6 | 2,616.6 |
UFCF % Chg. | -8.5% | 27.4% | 0.1% | -38.8% | 1.1% | 9.5% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,210.6 | 2,088.4 | 2,137.6 | 1,998.3 | 1,868.1 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,210.6 | 4,299 | 6,436.6 | 8,434.9 | 10,303 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 13,856 |
| Market Cap | 32,748.4 |
| Total Capital | 46,604.4 |
| Debt Weighting | 29.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 70.3% |
| WACC | 7% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 37,748.7 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 25,193.4 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 10,303 |
| Net Debt | 5,579 |
| Equity Value | 29,917.3 |
| Shares Outstanding | 538.8 |
| Implied Share Price | 55.5 |
| Current Share Price | 74.2 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -25.2% |