Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd.
SZSE-000858
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2023-01-01 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 73,968.6 | 83,272.1 | 89,175.2 | 76,827.7 | 85,092.1 | 91,092.5 | 91,092.5 | 91,092.5 |
Revenue % Chg. | 11.7% | 12.6% | 7.1% | |||||
EBIT | 34,974.1 | 39,237 | 41,091.1 | 35,215.7 | 41,290.8 | 44,654.5 | 44,654.5 | 44,654.5 |
EBIT Margin | 47.3% | 47.1% | 46.1% | |||||
Tax Rate | 24.6% | 24.8% | 24.8% | |||||
NOPAT | 26,364.6 | 29,508.5 | 30,884.3 | 26,458.8 | 31,023.2 | 33,546.7 | 33,546.7 | 33,546.7 |
NOPAT Margin | 35.6% | 35.4% | 34.6% | 34.4% | 36.5% | 36.8% | 36.8% | 36.8% |
D&A | 893.2 | 907 | 1,070.3 | 1,130.1 | 1,303 | 1,377.4 | 1,377.4 | 1,377.4 |
D&A / Revenue | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | |||||
Capex | -1,780.5 | -2,957.2 | -2,666.3 | -2,449.5 | -2,227.1 | -2,064.7 | -2,064.7 | -2,064.7 |
Capex / Revenue | -2.4% | -3.6% | -3% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -4,477.7 | 9,236.9 | -451.1 | 1,160.9 | 1,285.7 | 1,376.4 | 1,376.4 | 1,376.4 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -6.1% | 11.1% | -0.5% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 20,999.6 | 36,695.1 | 28,837.1 | 26,300.3 | 31,384.8 | 34,235.8 | 34,235.8 | 34,235.8 |
UFCF % Chg. | -11.5% | 74.7% | -21.4% | -8.8% | 19.3% | 9.1% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 23,967.3 | 26,063.6 | 25,909.2 | 23,610.9 | 21,516.4 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 23,967.3 | 50,030.9 | 75,940.1 | 99,551 | 121,067.4 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 6.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
| Total Debt | 802.6 |
| Market Cap | 452,479 |
| Total Capital | 453,281.6 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.8% |
| WACC | 9.7% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 320,376 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 183,487.7 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 121,067.4 |
| Net Debt | -135,807.8 |
| Equity Value | 440,362.9 |
| Shares Outstanding | 3,881.6 |
| Implied Share Price | 113.4 |
| Current Share Price | 115.6 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -1.9% |