Japan Tobacco Inc.
TSE-2914
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 2,657,832 | 2,841,077 | 3,149,759 | 3,415,318.1 | 3,612,502.2 | 3,775,744.5 | 3,775,744.5 | 3,775,744.5 |
Revenue % Chg. | 14.3% | 6.9% | 10.9% | |||||
EBIT | 636,662 | 645,126 | 301,723 | 827,221 | 899,392.9 | 969,190.2 | 969,190.2 | 969,190.2 |
EBIT Margin | 24% | 22.7% | 9.6% | |||||
Tax Rate | 25.2% | 21.9% | 21.9% | |||||
NOPAT | 476,516 | 503,676.3 | 235,676.7 | 618,264.9 | 683,538.6 | 739,492.1 | 739,492.1 | 739,492.1 |
NOPAT Margin | 17.9% | 17.7% | 7.5% | 18.1% | 18.9% | 19.6% | 19.6% | 19.6% |
D&A | 199,651 | 179,652 | 179,837 | 178,853.5 | 177,609.5 | 176,927 | 176,927 | 176,927 |
D&A / Revenue | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | |||||
Capex | -81,411 | -94,861 | -127,769 | -166,471.1 | -164,948.9 | -164,240.4 | -164,240.4 | -164,240.4 |
Capex / Revenue | -3.1% | -3.3% | -4.1% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -131,648 | -64,365 | 375,678 | 53,603.1 | 56,697.9 | 59,260 | 59,260 | 59,260 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -5% | -2.3% | 11.9% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 463,108 | 524,102.3 | 663,422.7 | 684,250.5 | 752,897.1 | 811,438.7 | 811,438.7 | 811,438.7 |
UFCF % Chg. | -8.8% | 13.2% | 26.6% | 3.1% | 10% | 7.8% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 623,850 | 625,843.5 | 614,965.7 | 560,681.2 | 511,188.4 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 623,850 | 1,249,693.6 | 1,864,659.3 | 2,425,340.4 | 2,936,528.9 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 2.3% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
| Total Debt | 1,726,789 |
| Market Cap | 1,588,649,060.8 |
| Total Capital | 1,590,375,849.8 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 99.9% |
| WACC | 9.7% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 1,746,710,317.1 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 1,003,254,854 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 2,936,528.9 |
| Net Debt | 992,763 |
| Equity Value | 1,005,198,619.9 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,775.4 |
| Implied Share Price | 566,185.4 |
| Current Share Price | 2,867.9 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | 19,641.8% |