Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd.
TSE-4578
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-03-31 (E) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-03-31 (E) | 2027-03-31 (E) | 2028-03-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 1,737,998 | 2,018,568 | 2,329,861 | 2,329,861 | 2,419,737.5 | 2,419,737.5 | 2,419,737.5 | 2,419,737.5 |
Revenue % Chg. | 16% | 16.1% | 15.4% | |||||
EBIT | 186,065 | 291,669 | 415,002 | 415,002 | 456,916.6 | 456,916.6 | 456,916.6 | 456,916.6 |
EBIT Margin | 10.7% | 14.4% | 17.8% | |||||
Tax Rate | 20.6% | 12% | -3.4% | |||||
NOPAT | 147,687.4 | 256,594.1 | 429,109.2 | 429,109.2 | 354,567.3 | 354,567.3 | 354,567.3 | 354,567.3 |
NOPAT Margin | 8.5% | 12.7% | 18.4% | 18.4% | 14.7% | 14.7% | 14.7% | 14.7% |
D&A | — | — | 107,979 | 107,979 | 115,116.7 | 115,116.7 | 115,116.7 | 115,116.7 |
D&A / Revenue | — | — | 4.6% | |||||
Capex | — | — | -95,558 | -95,558 | -194,425 | -194,425 | -194,425 | -194,425 |
Capex / Revenue | — | — | -4.1% | |||||
Chg. NWC | — | — | -77,105 | -25,701.7 | -26,693.1 | -26,693.1 | -26,693.1 | -26,693.1 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | — | — | -3.3% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 147,687.4 | 256,594.1 | 364,425.2 | 415,828.5 | 248,565.8 | 248,565.8 | 248,565.8 | 248,565.8 |
UFCF % Chg. | -20.3% | 73.7% | 42% | 14.1% | -40.2% | — | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 379,100.4 | 206,595.8 | 188,348.2 | 171,712.3 | 156,545.8 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 379,100.4 | 585,696.2 | 774,044.3 | 945,756.6 | 1,102,302.4 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 2.8% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
| Total Debt | 189,382 |
| Market Cap | 764,535,138.3 |
| Total Capital | 764,724,520.3 |
| Debt Weighting | 0% |
| Equity Weighting | 100% |
| WACC | 9.7% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 732,403,585.5 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 420,523,693 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 1,102,302.4 |
| Net Debt | -273,709 |
| Equity Value | 421,899,704.4 |
| Shares Outstanding | 528.1 |
| Implied Share Price | 798,853.7 |
| Current Share Price | 9,061.4 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | 8,716% |