Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
TSE-7011
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2023-03-31 (A) | 2024-03-31 (A) | 2025-03-31 (A) | 2026-03-31 (E) | 2027-03-31 (E) | 2028-03-31 (E) | 2029-03-31 (E) | 2030-03-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 4,202,797 | 4,657,147 | 5,027,176 | 5,169,119.7 | 5,635,681.6 | 6,098,042.6 | 6,098,042.6 | 6,098,042.6 |
Revenue % Chg. | 8.9% | 10.8% | 7.9% | |||||
EBIT | 180,314 | 262,752 | 330,974 | 421,986.1 | 529,560.6 | 614,345.7 | 614,345.7 | 614,345.7 |
EBIT Margin | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | |||||
Tax Rate | 23.4% | 22.7% | 30% | |||||
NOPAT | 138,031.4 | 203,045.3 | 231,527.9 | 297,218.9 | 370,515.9 | 429,837.3 | 429,837.3 | 429,837.3 |
NOPAT Margin | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
D&A | 148,549 | 155,899 | 160,643 | 160,364.1 | 166,931.1 | 169,383.2 | 169,383.2 | 169,383.2 |
D&A / Revenue | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | |||||
Capex | -131,905 | -160,486 | -240,692 | -197,633.4 | -199,133.4 | -201,258.4 | -201,258.4 | -201,258.4 |
Capex / Revenue | -3.1% | -3.4% | -4.8% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -166,916 | -48,448 | 140,299 | -38,269.2 | -41,723.4 | -45,146.4 | -45,146.4 | -45,146.4 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -4% | -1% | 2.8% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | -12,240.6 | 150,010.3 | 291,777.9 | 221,680.4 | 296,590.3 | 352,815.7 | 352,815.7 | 352,815.7 |
UFCF % Chg. | -113% | -1,325.5% | 94.5% | -24% | 33.8% | 19% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 203,260.7 | 249,350 | 271,973.4 | 249,374.8 | 228,653.9 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 203,260.7 | 452,610.7 | 724,584.1 | 973,958.8 | 1,202,612.8 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 1% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
| Total Debt | 1,131,274 |
| Market Cap | 13,601,748 |
| Total Capital | 14,733,022 |
| Debt Weighting | 7.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 92.3% |
| WACC | 9.1% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 13,996,303 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 8,317,068.3 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 1,202,612.8 |
| Net Debt | 273,550 |
| Equity Value | 9,246,131.1 |
| Shares Outstanding | 3,360.1 |
| Implied Share Price | 2,751.7 |
| Current Share Price | 4,048 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -32% |