Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc.
TSE-8766
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2023-03-31 (A) | 2024-03-31 (A) | 2025-03-31 (A) | 2026-03-31 (E) | 2027-03-31 (E) | 2028-03-31 (E) | 2029-03-31 (E) | 2030-03-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 6,622,532 | 7,353,991 | 7,981,520 | 8,101,466.7 | 8,569,600 | 8,740,950 | 8,740,950 | 8,740,950 |
Revenue % Chg. | 13.3% | 11% | 8.5% | |||||
EBIT | 800,675 | 1,058,246 | 1,871,562 | 1,899,687.9 | 2,009,459.1 | 2,049,638.4 | 2,049,638.4 | 2,049,638.4 |
EBIT Margin | 12.1% | 14.4% | 23.4% | |||||
Tax Rate | 34% | 18.3% | 27.3% | |||||
NOPAT | 528,830.6 | 864,395.4 | 1,359,847 | 1,381,548 | 1,460,876.7 | 1,488,037.5 | 1,488,037.5 | 1,488,037.5 |
NOPAT Margin | 8% | 11.8% | 17% | 17.1% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
D&A | 191,399 | 210,513 | 235,051 | 238,583.4 | 252,369.6 | 257,415.8 | 257,415.8 | 257,415.8 |
D&A / Revenue | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | |||||
Capex | -24,877 | -20,723 | -26,148 | -26,541 | -28,074.6 | -28,635.9 | -28,635.9 | -28,635.9 |
Capex / Revenue | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.3% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 565,373 | 526,050 | 571,527 | 617,088.7 | 652,746.4 | 665,798.2 | 665,798.2 | 665,798.2 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 1,260,725.6 | 1,580,235.4 | 2,140,277 | 2,210,679.2 | 2,337,918.2 | 2,382,615.4 | 2,382,615.4 | 2,382,615.4 |
UFCF % Chg. | -7.5% | 25.3% | 35.4% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 1.9% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,021,766.2 | 1,955,418.7 | 1,822,508.8 | 1,666,766.8 | 1,524,333.8 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,021,766.2 | 3,977,184.9 | 5,799,693.7 | 7,466,460.5 | 8,990,794.3 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 2.7% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.7% |
| Total Debt | 545,818 |
| Market Cap | 10,523,397.3 |
| Total Capital | 11,069,215.3 |
| Debt Weighting | 4.9% |
| Equity Weighting | 95.1% |
| WACC | 9.3% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 9,749,927.3 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 5,704,698.8 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 8,990,794.3 |
| Net Debt | -782,811 |
| Equity Value | 15,478,304.1 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,903.3 |
| Implied Share Price | 8,132.3 |
| Current Share Price | 5,529 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | 47.1% |