ARC Resources Ltd.
TSX-ARX
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 8,641.2 | 5,655.1 | 5,099 | 5,714.9 | 5,881 | 6,096.5 | 6,096.5 | 6,096.5 |
Revenue % Chg. | 69.1% | -34.6% | -9.8% | |||||
EBIT | 3,013.3 | 2,056.2 | 1,481.3 | 1,803.3 | 1,736.3 | 1,813 | 1,813 | 1,813 |
EBIT Margin | 34.9% | 36.4% | 29.1% | |||||
Tax Rate | 22.7% | 22.4% | 22.7% | |||||
NOPAT | 2,329.4 | 1,595.6 | 1,144.4 | 1,316.4 | 1,267.5 | 1,323.5 | 1,323.5 | 1,323.5 |
NOPAT Margin | 27% | 28.2% | 22.4% | 23% | 21.6% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% |
D&A | 1,331 | 1,424.1 | 1,368.8 | 1,526 | 1,678 | 1,698.3 | 1,698.3 | 1,698.3 |
D&A / Revenue | 15.4% | 25.2% | 26.8% | |||||
Capex | -1,428.8 | -1,838.3 | -1,832.9 | -1,911.2 | -1,874.8 | -2,252.1 | -2,252.1 | -2,252.1 |
Capex / Revenue | -16.5% | -32.5% | -35.9% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 120.8 | -245.3 | -123.9 | -102.3 | -105.3 | -109.1 | -109.1 | -109.1 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 1.4% | -4.3% | -2.4% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 2,352.4 | 936.1 | 556.4 | 829 | 965.4 | 660.6 | 660.6 | 660.6 |
UFCF % Chg. | 509.9% | -60.2% | -40.6% | 49% | 16.5% | -31.6% | 0% | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 767.1 | 826.7 | 523.5 | 484.4 | 448.3 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 767.1 | 1,593.9 | 2,117.4 | 2,601.8 | 3,050.1 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 4% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 2,388.7 |
| Market Cap | 15,619 |
| Total Capital | 18,007.7 |
| Debt Weighting | 13.3% |
| Equity Weighting | 86.7% |
| WACC | 8.1% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 19,463.8 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 12,222.6 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 3,050.1 |
| Net Debt | 3,844.8 |
| Equity Value | 11,427.8 |
| Shares Outstanding | 575.5 |
| Implied Share Price | 19.9 |
| Current Share Price | 27.1 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -26.8% |