Canadian National Railway Company
TSX-CNR
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 17,107 | 16,828 | 17,046 | 17,261.9 | 17,927.4 | 18,883.7 | 18,883.7 | 18,883.7 |
Revenue % Chg. | 18.2% | -1.6% | 1.3% | |||||
EBIT | 7,338 | 7,076 | 6,779 | 6,566.1 | 6,990.3 | 7,558.7 | 7,558.7 | 7,558.7 |
EBIT Margin | 42.9% | 42% | 39.8% | |||||
Tax Rate | 24.3% | 13.3% | 24% | |||||
NOPAT | 5,553.1 | 6,134.8 | 5,152.6 | 4,959.2 | 5,266.9 | 5,700.5 | 5,700.5 | 5,700.5 |
NOPAT Margin | 32.5% | 36.5% | 30.2% | 28.7% | 29.4% | 30.2% | 30.2% | 30.2% |
D&A | 1,729 | 1,817 | 1,892 | 1,979.9 | 2,038 | 2,082 | 2,082 | 2,082 |
D&A / Revenue | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.1% | |||||
Capex | -2,750 | -3,187 | -3,549 | -3,333 | -2,800 | -3,039 | -3,039 | -3,039 |
Capex / Revenue | -16.1% | -18.9% | -20.8% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -411 | -53 | 92 | -125.3 | -130.1 | -137.1 | -137.1 | -137.1 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -2.4% | -0.3% | 0.5% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 4,121.1 | 4,711.8 | 3,587.6 | 3,480.7 | 4,374.8 | 4,606.5 | 4,606.5 | 4,606.5 |
UFCF % Chg. | 17.9% | 14.3% | -23.9% | -3% | 25.7% | 5.3% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 3,234.1 | 3,776.9 | 3,695.2 | 3,433.4 | 3,190.2 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 3,234.1 | 7,011 | 10,706.2 | 14,139.7 | 17,329.9 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.5% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 21,371 |
| Market Cap | 84,748.2 |
| Total Capital | 106,119.2 |
| Debt Weighting | 20.1% |
| Equity Weighting | 79.9% |
| WACC | 7.6% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 106,144.2 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 68,302.1 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 17,329.9 |
| Net Debt | 21,396 |
| Equity Value | 64,235.9 |
| Shares Outstanding | 615.5 |
| Implied Share Price | 104.4 |
| Current Share Price | 137.7 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -24.2% |