Constellation Software Inc.
TSX-CSU
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 6,622 | 8,407 | 10,066 | 11,600.9 | 13,536.1 | 15,820.6 | 15,820.6 | 15,820.6 |
Revenue % Chg. | 29.7% | 27% | 19.7% | |||||
EBIT | 920 | 1,182 | 1,471 | 1,859.3 | 2,134.3 | 2,445.5 | 2,445.5 | 2,445.5 |
EBIT Margin | 13.9% | 14.1% | 14.6% | |||||
Tax Rate | 24.1% | 76.7% | 24.1% | |||||
NOPAT | 697.9 | 275.5 | 1,116.3 | 1,337.4 | 1,657.6 | 1,891.2 | 1,891.2 | 1,891.2 |
NOPAT Margin | 10.5% | 3.3% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
D&A | 425 | 522 | 620 | 1,398.5 | 1,617 | 1,977.5 | 1,977.5 | 1,977.5 |
D&A / Revenue | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | |||||
Capex | -41 | -42 | -67 | -64.3 | -81.3 | -92.8 | -92.8 | -92.8 |
Capex / Revenue | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.7% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -60 | -36 | -45 | -68.9 | -80.4 | -93.9 | -93.9 | -93.9 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -0.9% | -0.4% | -0.4% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 1,021.9 | 719.5 | 1,624.3 | 2,602.7 | 3,113 | 3,682 | 3,682 | 3,682 |
UFCF % Chg. | 40% | -29.6% | 125.8% | 60.2% | 19.6% | 18.3% | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,404 | 2,655.7 | 2,901.3 | 2,679.8 | 2,475.2 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 2,404 | 5,059.7 | 7,961 | 10,640.8 | 13,116 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 3.6% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 8.7% |
| Total Debt | 4,533 |
| Market Cap | 50,971.4 |
| Total Capital | 55,504.4 |
| Debt Weighting | 8.2% |
| Equity Weighting | 91.8% |
| WACC | 8.3% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 54,267.5 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 33,694.9 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 13,116 |
| Net Debt | 2,638 |
| Equity Value | 44,172.8 |
| Shares Outstanding | 21.2 |
| Implied Share Price | 2,084.5 |
| Current Share Price | 2,405.3 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -13.3% |