Hotai Motor Co.,Ltd.
TWSE-2207
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 245,312 | 278,578.8 | 281,845.7 | 282,463 | 296,565 | 296,565 | 296,565 | 296,565 |
Revenue % Chg. | -0.4% | 13.6% | 1.2% | |||||
EBIT | -10,245.8 | 34,807.1 | 34,319.7 | 29,009 | 30,794 | 30,794 | 30,794 | 30,794 |
EBIT Margin | -4.2% | 12.5% | 12.2% | |||||
Tax Rate | -7.6% | 11.4% | 14.1% | |||||
NOPAT | -11,023.6 | 30,832.6 | 29,480.8 | 24,918.9 | 26,452.2 | 26,452.2 | 26,452.2 | 26,452.2 |
NOPAT Margin | -4.5% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% |
D&A | 12,032.8 | 13,071.4 | 13,967.7 | 14,164 | 14,644 | 14,644 | 14,644 | 14,644 |
D&A / Revenue | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5% | |||||
Capex | -24,764.4 | -25,008.3 | -25,831.1 | -24,000 | -24,000 | -24,000 | -24,000 | -24,000 |
Capex / Revenue | -10.1% | -9% | -9.2% | |||||
Chg. NWC | -36,490.6 | -60,041.9 | -18,200.4 | -40,378.7 | -42,394.6 | -42,394.6 | -42,394.6 | -42,394.6 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | -14.9% | -21.6% | -6.5% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | -60,245.8 | -41,146.2 | -583.1 | -25,295.8 | -25,298.4 | -25,298.4 | -25,298.4 | -25,298.4 |
UFCF % Chg. | 164.3% | -31.7% | -98.6% | 4,238% | 0% | — | — | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | -23,876.3 | -22,538.7 | -21,274 | -20,080.1 | -18,953.3 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | -23,876.3 | -46,415 | -67,689 | -87,769.1 | -106,722.4 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 2.2% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.6% |
| Total Debt | 315,311.1 |
| Market Cap | 327,576.4 |
| Total Capital | 642,887.5 |
| Debt Weighting | 49% |
| Equity Weighting | 51% |
| WACC | 5.9% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 641,423.8 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 453,581.6 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | -106,722.4 |
| Net Debt | 278,392.5 |
| Equity Value | 68,466.7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 557.1 |
| Implied Share Price | 122.9 |
| Current Share Price | 588 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -79.1% |