Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
TWSE-2330
BUILD UP FREE CASH | 2022-12-31 (A) | 2023-12-31 (A) | 2024-12-31 (A) | 2025-12-31 (E) | 2026-12-31 (E) | 2027-12-31 (E) | 2028-12-31 (E) | 2029-12-31 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 2,263,891.3 | 2,161,735.8 | 2,894,307.7 | 3,776,191.5 | 4,559,236.9 | 5,502,692.5 | 5,502,692.5 | 5,502,692.5 |
Revenue % Chg. | 42.6% | -4.5% | 33.9% | |||||
EBIT | 1,122,069.6 | 921,465.6 | 1,323,203.5 | 1,878,235.7 | 2,254,011.5 | 2,726,125.7 | 2,726,125.7 | 2,726,125.7 |
EBIT Margin | 49.6% | 42.6% | 45.7% | |||||
Tax Rate | 13.2% | 13.1% | 17.7% | |||||
NOPAT | 974,192 | 800,755.4 | 1,089,484.7 | 1,576,834.1 | 1,896,551.9 | 2,300,265.9 | 2,300,265.9 | 2,300,265.9 |
NOPAT Margin | 43% | 37% | 37.6% | 41.8% | 41.6% | 41.8% | 41.8% | 41.8% |
D&A | 432,479.8 | 526,882.8 | 657,326.4 | 739,254.1 | 873,284.7 | 1,003,968.7 | 1,003,968.7 | 1,003,968.7 |
D&A / Revenue | 19.1% | 24.4% | 22.7% | |||||
Capex | -1,082,672.1 | -949,816.8 | -956,006.5 | -1,261,295.7 | -1,412,125.5 | -1,570,399.3 | -1,570,399.3 | -1,570,399.3 |
Capex / Revenue | -47.8% | -43.9% | -33% | |||||
Chg. NWC | 122,508.5 | -56,852 | 13,350.9 | 40,817.7 | 49,281.9 | 59,479.9 | 59,479.9 | 59,479.9 |
Chg. NWC / Revenue | 5.4% | -2.6% | 0.5% | |||||
Unlevered FCF (UFCF) | 446,508.2 | 320,969.4 | 804,155.5 | 1,095,610.2 | 1,406,992.9 | 1,793,315.1 | 1,793,315.1 | 1,793,315.1 |
UFCF % Chg. | 52.5% | -28.1% | 150.5% | 36.2% | 28.4% | 27.5% | 0% | — |
PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 1,001,504.5 | 1,175,670.5 | 1,369,768.5 | 1,252,114.5 | 1,144,566.1 |
Sum of PV of UFCF | — | — | — | 1,001,504.5 | 2,177,175 | 3,546,943.5 | 4,799,058 | 5,943,624.1 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | |
| After Tax Cost of Debt | 0.9% |
| Risk Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Beta | 1 |
| Cost of Equity | 9.6% |
| Total Debt | 1,050,091.1 |
| Market Cap | 38,380,135.5 |
| Total Capital | 39,430,226.6 |
| Debt Weighting | 2.7% |
| Equity Weighting | 97.3% |
| WACC | 9.4% |
| Exit Multiple EV/FCF | |
| Terminal Value | 36,695,457.7 |
| PV of Terminal Value | 21,408,855.4 |
| Cumulative PV of UFCF | 5,943,624.1 |
| Net Debt | -1,721,948.7 |
| Equity Value | 29,074,428.3 |
| Shares Outstanding | 25,932.5 |
| Implied Share Price | 1,121.2 |
| Current Share Price | 1,480 |
| Implied Upside / (Downside) | -24.2% |